Fed Rates · resolved market
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1d87dd6fe5704489486bda31a2f72f7bef90f479cade1315b94c634349fa2f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 15c | 23,658$3,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,627.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +469.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 1c | 8,000$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,920 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +432.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 13c | 2,306$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,006.22 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +9.2wins | +0.44per pick | 14cpaid | +420%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x3185…7c83backed Yes | 1c | 1,629$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked No | 75c | 1,574$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.06 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 3c | 793.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 30c | 769.5$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.61 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 59c | 635.75$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.05 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…bb52backed Yes | 25c | 600$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…65c5backed No | 63c | 532$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a3…7739backed Yes | 25c | 514.84$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked Yes | 35c | 503$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 53c | 490.65$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.45 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 21c | 483.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes | 42c | 449.01$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 25c | 432.77$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed No | 58c | 410$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cb…ac3dbacked No | 70c | 383$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 67c | 363$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 22c | 355$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed No | 67c | 339$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8323…29c0backed Yes | 61c | 326.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…7406backed Yes | 23c | 299$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked No | 80c | 290$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed No | 70c | 271$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 60c | 270$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed No | 78c | 267$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4be…58f2backed Yes | 34c | 248.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 26c | 245.45$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 16c | 236.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 22c | 234$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 30c | 232$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 65c | 231$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 26c | 222$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 32c | 219$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked No | 78c | 213$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 64c | 209.9$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…0c32backed Yes | 20c | 202$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes | 21c | 201$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked No | 77c | 201$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed No | 79c | 198$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 75c | 197.83$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 26c | 189$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes | 39c | 185$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed No | 79c | 182$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed No | 68c | 180$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes | 21c | 179$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 32c | 176.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 68c | 173$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +469.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked No | 69c | 173$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes | 33c | 171$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 170.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 68c | 168$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked Yes | 33c | 168$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 15c | 167.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.23 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.49per pick | 23cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed Yes | 33c | 155$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 19c | 150.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +276.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed Yes | 24c | 145$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…1272backed No | 79c | 136$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked No | 77c | 134$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 30c | 125$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b6…922fbacked Yes | 48c | 122.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a77…21cfbacked Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 33c | 115.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 114$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84d…184abacked No | 79c | 110.76$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +133%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ec…deb6backed Yes | 54c | 110.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…ab1cbacked Yes | 30c | 109.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked Yes | 30c | 109$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 50c | 103.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 39c | 103$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32da…b112backed Yes | 40c | 102.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed Yes | 21c | 102$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed Yes | 32c | 102$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 76c | 100.79$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac3…c010backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…059abacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…857bbacked Yes | 30c | 97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 21c | 96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 68c | 94.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…9c62backed Yes | 22c | 91.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…5772backed Yes | 12c | 90.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes | 20c | 88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked Yes | 33c | 88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…409cbacked No | 61c | 79.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0daa…debcbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…f815backed No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ef…6f9dbacked No | 54c | 74.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…643dbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed No | 76c | 73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 29c | 69.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d5f6backed No | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…8c30backed Yes | 25c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 38c | 65.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…9767backed No | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the December Fed decision?No won
- Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?No won
- Will one person dissent the December Fed decision?No won
- Will three people dissent the December Fed decision?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.