Fed Rates · resolved market
Will four or more people dissent the December Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d8edc69effeb94b58cc05c620535c3df29dcc39b4c4d42b7d616052906071ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 18c | 1,798$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.11 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 9c | 1,600$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…0266backed Yes | 15c | 1,498$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.45 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 76c | 1,401$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.92 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98b7…5d11backed Yes | 32c | 1,343$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.39 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed No | 71c | 799.99$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…bb52backed No | 79c | 786.13$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 70c | 768.82$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.81 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef7…e75dbacked Yes | 30c | 539.99$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 17c | 478.09$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.98 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 26c | 478.01$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.28 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce48…d465backed Yes | 24c | 419.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0f…9c9cbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 408.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…efd6backed Yes | 18c | 406.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…0c00backed Yes | 24c | 397.73$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 17c | 396.78$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 21c | 359.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d5…591bbacked Yes | 15c | 335$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x235c…ba38backed Yes | 22c | 300$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…4d4ebacked No | 79c | 284.97$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 22c | 281.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…056ebacked Yes | 36c | 276.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 20c | 272$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 18c | 267$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4be…58f2backed Yes | 20c | 243.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 16c | 226.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed Yes | 13c | 219.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 15c | 219.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a77…21cfbacked Yes | 28c | 214.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 200.85$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…3e66backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc02…f89cbacked No | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 198.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22ec…4477backed Yes | 14c | 179$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 18c | 176.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 173.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes | 16c | 157$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…52c0backed Yes | 13c | 150.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…1392backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 13c | 149.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 144.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 78c | 142.53$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 75c | 132.95$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…b867backed Yes | 23c | 130.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…fe0dbacked No | 80c | 126.34$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd20c…db54backed Yes | 32c | 126.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 20c | 124.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 121.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed Yes | 25c | 119.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 21c | 116.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a3…7739backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…7292backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 12c | 98.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be3…afa3backed No | 80c | 96.65$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…ab1cbacked Yes | 21c | 95.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a68…33bfbacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 20c | 78.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…5147backed Yes | 38c | 78.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd418…9a9bbacked Yes | 20c | 73.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 38c | 71.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb186…310cbacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 19c | 65.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 62c | 57.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 53.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 72c | 48.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…93a4backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 77c | 14.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will four or more people dissent the December Fed decision?this page
- Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?No won
- Will one person dissent the December Fed decision?No won
- Will three people dissent the December Fed decision?Yes won
- Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.