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Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Amanda Edwards win TX-18 Special Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,026
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,904

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,026 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes16c1,373$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.454932.7%16 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x10d8…9f12backed Yes20c1,283$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.61241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f0f…98e8backed Yes26c1,207$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.63933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6276…2dd9backed Yes21c1,187$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-53%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed57…4dacbacked Yes12c1,109$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked No80c1,106$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.2933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d2…3e62backed Yes20c1,092$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed Yes20c1,076$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.311338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5682…97afbacked No79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes9c963.97$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9024932.9%82 W · 167 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadc9…5856backed No76c955$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.2837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73df…ba67backed No80c930$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-79.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked Yes20c880$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1761241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x460d…6232backed No79c874$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+108.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5bc…2ad5backed Yes20c859$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.8650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes12c836.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2236822%81 W · 287 L-27.9wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x88fa…2cf4backed Yes20c789$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.81225%3 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes17c773$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6422461.2%137 W · 87 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1b9…e6d3backed Yes16c772$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.31966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+32.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbec…8dccbacked No80c770$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc18…cb94backed Yes20c713$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…6f80backed Yes13c686.4$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24f8…351ebacked No76c679$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes19c674$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.85922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed No78c654$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.884100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+108.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x81ba…b311backed Yes22c645$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.931050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc771…e858backed No75c632$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+84%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f0…669dbacked Yes20c617$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+84.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…0da3backed Yes20c597$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x11e9…8e90backed Yes33c596$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.68450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+74%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8d…24efbacked No80c592$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+68.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed No80c583$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.6977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc32a…7c05backed No80c580$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1162100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c9…af45backed No80c580$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x128e…001dbacked No80c580$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1162100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+79.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed Yes20c574$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.61136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked Yes25c573$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.251258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-13.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed No80c565$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1131346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7f…f745backed Yes20c551$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes20c551$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-76.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e17…320dbacked Yes10c549.57$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71f6…ea40backed No80c546$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.21154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed No80c545$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1091154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63c2…ca53backed No80c526$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.2560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-19.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xad46…0918backed No80c504$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed Yes20c496$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.21136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x755e…7b04backed No80c489$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c824backed No67c480$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.4366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd1…2bb3backed Yes33c480$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-43.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca67…703cbacked No76c472$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.28785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick54cpaid+89.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd320…81a5backed Yes24c469$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.56425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-66.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes23c466$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.181323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-52.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6891…1146backed Yes24c447$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.28837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+73.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cae…c0eebacked No76c447$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.28650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…4441backed Yes24c445$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.81729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes24c432$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.681070%7 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.34per pick36cpaid+121.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb214…a6aabacked Yes22c428$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d2b…fd2cbacked No75c417$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.251040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked No67c417$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.61580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+102.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes24c404$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.961442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54f2…55d9backed No67c389$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.37475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick42cpaid+51.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc187…bdf1backed No80c384$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes20c384$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe854…269fbacked Yes9c374.45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.85757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes20c366$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.21723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-44.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e3e…0959backed No80c357$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-45.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bc4…4a8ebacked No80c354$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ead…6c75backed Yes24c346$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid+31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4516…ea0ebacked Yes17c346$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.441172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9b2…9ae2backed No76c315$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.61154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc895…9bfabacked No75c307$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.75540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2140…5790backed Yes23c304.35$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7060%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No77c300$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7034634.7%120 W · 226 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa44b…eb27backed No80c294$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-40.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes20c294$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x722f…f17fbacked Yes12c273$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.76616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45ff…bab6backed Yes25c268$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick43cpaid-78.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c8e…9be8backed Yes20c263$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f49…3008backed No79c253.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed Yes14c253$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x385f…3c30backed No76c246$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.04922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-57.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6789…52f9backed Yes20c245$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5383…88f0backed Yes22c226$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.72850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29ac…9907backed Yes13c224$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked Yes24c223.45$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.567830.8%24 W · 54 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes12c217$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.041118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Yes11c216.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.853357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed Yes12c216$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.921050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c2…aa71backed Yes12c216$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.921145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…f8a1backed Yes14c214$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66a7…6569backed No79c211$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.31966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9322…01e3backed No77c205$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x169a…55e4backed Yes24c205$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.230%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4883…ce56backed No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8349…69e5backed No80c194$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6956…dd15backed No79c188$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.48666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes11c187.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.617132.7%56 W · 115 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc666…7130backed Yes13c187$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba6b…b341backed No80c186$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02ee…5adebacked Yes14c185$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.65633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.