TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$86,677
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,800

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,677 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 307 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6276…2dd9backed No20c3,742$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-53%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1b9…e6d3backed Yes30c1,987$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,395.39966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+32.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0170…a17cbacked Yes79c1,266$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No15c988.28$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.951729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed No33c959$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.281127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-62.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No18c952.49$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.3119643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed No26c909$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.18944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7407…19bebacked Yes75c895$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.751127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3359…2273backed No29c889$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.28560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4406…5eafbacked No26c883$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.58540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed No43c836$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.84540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdb7…6cd5backed No25c824$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc62a…c2c7backed No21c817.79$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76fd…e8c4backed No26c783$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.58450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+149.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12e2…85b7backed Yes74c782$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.32475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+124.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x672b…68d2backed No25c777$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb023…6d90backed No25c766$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c42…a64bbacked Yes74c757$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.82933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd016…306dbacked Yes79c700$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e29…d190backed Yes75c691$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.75560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+61.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09be…76d5backed Yes75c690$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-70.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No16c682.03$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4434129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6a4…aa57backed No29c666$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.111030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-52.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed No28c658$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.28922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-71.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No23c622.06$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.012055%11 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b8…0ec1backed No26c622$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.72333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe54d…c913backed Yes75c610$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked No15c595.53$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.768741.4%36 W · 51 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed No42c590$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.39837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No52c583.57$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.7216833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bc4…4a8ebacked No27c572$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.44650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a7d…d9fcbacked Yes16c569$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked No25c567$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.751241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked No25c567$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.75714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-80.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No21c554.23$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.024734%16 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes74c542$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.92742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a94…7154backed Yes75c533$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.251070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+82.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b47…8191backed Yes74c526$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+130.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd907…f15fbacked Yes74c507$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.82560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes79c506.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-12.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8959…50f8backed Yes75c499$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.751154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a88…513ebacked Yes75c495$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.75520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-73.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa71…9767backed No25c489$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.25520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe335…cd12backed Yes75c488$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No4c475.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0124433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed No26c473$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.32837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c07…0cbcbacked Yes75c469$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.25580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+28.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8401…a498backed No26c451$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.26650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed Yes74c451$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.263100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+70.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes75c443$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.75862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…1598backed No25c430$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-57.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed No25c430$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+55.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2247…96e8backed No25c410$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-66.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x34be…6797backed No26c403$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14d5…1f63backed Yes74c403$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No16c395.92$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.541855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Yes79c391.79$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.73366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66aa…9ae5backed Yes78c385.56$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f0d…1683backed Yes75c385$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.25837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-42.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No11c383.26$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.396845.6%31 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes39c379$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.263100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+103.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1e1…d9c1backed Yes75c374$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.5650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2c7…2371backed No36c369.63$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+55.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b63…52cfbacked Yes74c366$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes27c364.41$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.412657.7%15 W · 11 L+9.0wins+0.34per pick23cpaid+138.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xa232…175fbacked Yes74c361$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.86683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick56cpaid+52.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes42c360$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+23.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf528…4441backed Yes77c358$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.461631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes18c356.04$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.952020%4 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+51.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No13c356.02$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.593154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+40.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d5f6backed Yes61c343$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.35728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e57…6c04backed Yes19c335$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+124.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6705…7ddcbacked Yes74c329$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.542100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+230.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73df…ba67backed No25c327$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-79.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x76b5…4ca3backed Yes74c318$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.68475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+124.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd6d…7dadbacked No16c314.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6070…b755backed Yes39c312.94$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.81040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ba…c705backed Yes30c305$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.83650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa785…acb6backed Yes77c300$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbae5…45e3backed Yes66c300$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1012450%12 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+9.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x81c1…e164backed Yes74c297.59$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.047100%7 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+52.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x677f…c336backed Yes79c295.68$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.09520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-74.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes19c295$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.95728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36b0…f5bebacked No25c292$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes76c281$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.44450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked Yes20c280$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2247429.7%22 W · 52 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes74c279$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.54850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+41.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e4…b332backed Yes75c275$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.75944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes19c274$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1b8…84e3backed Yes74c270$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes76c267.83$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.53450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa355…a3a2backed No25c266$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x159f…333fbacked Yes18c260$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+85.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed No58c256$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.48540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d4…8cf7backed Yes73c256$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.12366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc2…ef33backed Yes73c255$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed No25c254$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5403…edd5backed Yes79c253.38$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes76c250$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf8…ded2backed Yes67c246$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.41560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.