Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bf9236559e56f5bf1e72f0b04a52dd80c8a159861524d9c354e583763042a26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 41c | 1,719$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.29 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…74f4backed Yes | 17c | 1,232$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…e296backed Yes | 16c | 1,220$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 36c | 1,162$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.67 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 53c | 1,132$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.22 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed Yes | 17c | 1,118$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 1,051$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.87 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked No | 57c | 1,008$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.35 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…d9d1backed Yes | 33c | 900$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 22c | 861.3$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.6 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked Yes | 19c | 776$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 69c | 767.56$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.57 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…4811backed Yes | 35c | 712.45$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed No | 66c | 700$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.67 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 20c | 651.29$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.86 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 56c | 588.01$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.82 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…d20ebacked Yes | 18c | 523$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 520.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…b9b4backed Yes | 16c | 515$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed No | 42c | 509$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.73 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 31c | 492.2$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.49 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 50c | 488.68$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed Yes | 66c | 481.52$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.07 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes | 17c | 477$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 77c | 452.66$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.66 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164a…d563backed No | 72c | 451.2$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked No | 74c | 447.69$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 79c | 446.99$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.42 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed Yes | 16c | 433$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed Yes | 19c | 426$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed No | 56c | 417$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.48 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 44c | 406.65$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.8 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 51c | 403$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.53 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 53c | 400.24$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.48 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 46c | 400$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.08 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed No | 72c | 399.99$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed No | 59c | 397$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.77 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…2d87backed Yes | 16c | 395$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…7a65backed Yes | 45c | 391$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 26c | 378.3$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…a48fbacked Yes | 17c | 359$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked Yes | 44c | 356$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed No | 56c | 330$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed No | 56c | 323.56$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.81 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 40c | 309.5$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.18 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed No | 62c | 306$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.42 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked No | 56c | 301$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…aec3backed Yes | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 41c | 290$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.74 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed No | 55c | 268$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 267.79$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.78 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cb…ac3dbacked No | 54c | 251$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…fc43backed Yes | 41c | 248$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…7fc6backed Yes | 25c | 243$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…2261backed Yes | 59c | 240$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…c502backed Yes | 42c | 239.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 19c | 238.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…704bbacked No | 49c | 238$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.38 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed No | 41c | 235$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.65 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 57c | 231$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.67 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d5f6backed No | 55c | 226$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.08 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…8b4abacked Yes | 45c | 222.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 67c | 220.59$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.18 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 51c | 220$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked Yes | 49c | 208$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.27 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf3…4ec6backed Yes | 51c | 196.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 24c | 192.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 44c | 191$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e0…3790backed Yes | 47c | 190.85$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked No | 49c | 190$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed No | 57c | 177$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed Yes | 43c | 177$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed Yes | 37c | 176$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked Yes | 19c | 175$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…a074backed Yes | 57c | 174.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 44c | 174$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 19c | 174$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked No | 56c | 173$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 46c | 167.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed No | 53c | 162$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3446…2331backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4341…2421backed Yes | 64c | 157.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed No | 49c | 156.86$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…d81cbacked Yes | 13c | 156.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…001dbacked Yes | 17c | 156$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked No | 53c | 155.19$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…81a5backed Yes | 44c | 155$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 67c | 153.46$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed Yes | 41c | 153$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed Yes | 16c | 147$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 55c | 145.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9722…5304backed Yes | 48c | 143$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed Yes | 40c | 142$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc3…7dafbacked Yes | 21c | 141.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed No | 41c | 141$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.49 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 49c | 140$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?this page
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.