Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31fec2d1f9ab90d299911325cf37572f29e938175b48b54146842e548136acab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 653.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…3527backed Yes | 52c | 593.43$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +194.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed No | 65c | 341.87$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 7c | 308.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed Yes | 12c | 303.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed Yes | 8c | 273$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 9c | 228.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed Yes | 7c | 222$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 16c | 212$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 46c | 202.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.48 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 8c | 197$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc51d…373bbacked Yes | 23c | 196.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 8c | 181$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 25c | 173.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 8c | 157$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf3…4ec6backed Yes | 14c | 142.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 20c | 131$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…8df5backed Yes | 25c | 126.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 80c | 126$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4974backed Yes | 19c | 95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 18c | 93.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa33…372ebacked Yes | 35c | 79.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…d8b8backed Yes | 37c | 76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 26c | 66.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 50c | 65.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x22ec…4477backed Yes | 19c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 50c | 58.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 28c | 57.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2541…60acbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…5428backed No | 46c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23a5…2c53backed Yes | 28c | 43.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…bc13backed No | 58c | 39.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 55c | 34.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde09…ee91backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…7652backed No | 40c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a72…74e2backed No | 71c | 25.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x184e…3a48backed Yes | 59c | 25.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea07…d8b7backed Yes | 54c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…f95bbacked No | 71c | 20.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa437…2155backed Yes | 57c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by November 30?this page
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.