Movies · resolved market
Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x316e3d02c8d56e8fe9498b27e8a02383e04ca446ea6e2d08d9f90a699d9fe569
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,050$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d9…870ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8316…457bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,941$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…69a0backed Yes | 3c | 1,749$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 27c | 779.74$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.3 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 10c | 453.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 10c | 283.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 23c | 220.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 8c | 192.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d82…3d02backed Yes | 20c | 178$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 19c | 143.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63d8…476fbacked Yes | 8c | 142.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 140.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed No | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24f8…351ebacked Yes | 12c | 126$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 108.05$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…a54dbacked Yes | 15c | 108$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -5.3wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 79.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1587…901abacked No | 80c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…782fbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?this page
- Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?Yes won
- Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?No won
- Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m?No won
- Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.