Movies · resolved market
Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3d58063b34585ff9f5155e439f385b4fa3c2d954de3636e1491c47140e0a0d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 35c | 1,595$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.33 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 39c | 1,295$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.03 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed No | 55c | 1,166$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…7a3fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,038$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fb…f72ebacked Yes | 46c | 951$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 55c | 914$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.96 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 24c | 754.99$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.5 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 27c | 732.94$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.53 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…a8c5backed Yes | 45c | 650$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…69a0backed Yes | 8c | 604.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed No | 55c | 560$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…7de5backed Yes | 45c | 529$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…ba85backed No | 54c | 508$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 2c | 466$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 14c | 435$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…838dbacked Yes | 45c | 377$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed No | 55c | 377$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…0ec1backed No | 55c | 356$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed Yes | 45c | 336$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.21 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 43cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa692…8ec9backed Yes | 45c | 301$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 45c | 299.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…ec87backed No | 55c | 298$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 279.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 201.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 13c | 199.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…08cbbacked No | 54c | 179$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…c6b5backed Yes | 46c | 171$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 159.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 28c | 150.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 52c | 137.34$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad1…4852backed Yes | 8c | 136.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 116.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed No | 54c | 112$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.18 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 17c | 110.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…5ea0backed Yes | 45c | 97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…a539backed No | 54c | 93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ca…e7adbacked Yes | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…d20ebacked Yes | 45c | 79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d30…1a5ebacked Yes | 19c | 68.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 28c | 66.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6b…b341backed Yes | 46c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 20c | 55.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 43c | 46.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 79c | 46.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe66a…a0a0backed Yes | 30c | 39.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8156…07e4backed Yes | 45c | 29.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 22.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?this page
- Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?Yes won
- Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?No won
- Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m?No won
- Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.