Movies · resolved market
Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e6cfe5d928e922acd71eb0f018a26a3e28934c3f18f08c5c0784de96f0308a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 8c | 2,195$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.69 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 11c | 1,285$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.94 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 909.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 15c | 765.04$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 13c | 489$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…03e1backed Yes | 6c | 486.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc76a…841ebacked Yes | 12c | 448.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 7c | 266.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 252.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 199.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 28c | 191.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 12c | 144.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…497abacked Yes | 12c | 138.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…560abacked Yes | 20c | 97.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…d1a3backed Yes | 16c | 63.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…3c05backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?this page
- Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?Yes won
- Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?No won
- Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?No won
- Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.