TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$185,432
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$177,014

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,432 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0b4f…6678backed Yes4c30,187$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a65…25adbacked Yes32c9,330$2,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,979.64450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes20c9,239$1,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,856.653630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed Yes51c4,553$2,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,338.971353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes1c4,420$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.041358.1%11 W · 124 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes20c3,946$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.3510331.1%32 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed Yes19c3,609$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.443951.3%20 W · 19 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe3d…1fc6backed Yes44c3,375$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.08137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick27cpaid-85.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes7c3,050$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.251315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-77.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.057038.6%27 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4a…7c9fbacked Yes6c3,000$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x861f…a189backed Yes10c2,896$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5c…4d73backed Yes11c2,877$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x442a…7c94backed Yes8c2,514$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.676141%25 W · 36 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+93.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x67d6…245ebacked Yes12c1,546$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.11421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-61.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No60c1,474$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.4312345.5%56 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes17c1,331$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.513935.9%14 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes17c1,253$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.544126.8%11 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4028…7de4backed Yes28c1,252$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes20c1,245$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.615728.1%16 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked No57c1,207$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.142454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No61c1,206$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.5516535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes33c1,125$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.7728434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes8c1,060$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8511017.3%19 W · 91 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes8c938.84$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4123225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes17c893.69$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.932245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+71.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b5a…c0bcbacked Yes19c800.83$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.78650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No58c798.09$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.41533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked Yes14c792.61$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1072416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-59.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfabf…b9f3backed Yes27c727.79$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed No78c692.54$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.262580%20 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe069…3c17backed Yes8c660.39$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-36.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xad67…8cd3backed Yes47c636.02$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1f4…7a37backed No79c630.95$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes2c580.63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.351127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-59.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed No65c545.94$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.086030%18 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafac…8e76backed Yes7c518.63$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes42c500$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.513525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed No69c500$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.194045%18 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865d…16bdbacked Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452240.9%9 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes12c486.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.311127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No66c470$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.329053.3%48 W · 42 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No58c458.94$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.843525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc17…6c16backed Yes6c447.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+138.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce49…c3b9backed Yes14c440.09$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.750%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes28c435.64$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.24616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-62.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e77…e626backed Yes21c420$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.471136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+43.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde54…444dbacked Yes17c401.42$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.861225%3 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+183%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x814a…ab7abacked Yes41c400$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.82231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes31c396.69$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3914947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes17c365.83$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.188630.2%26 W · 60 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed Yes32c362$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.863010%3 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9be…d2b1backed Yes37c352.23$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.23633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+201.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0da4…eddebacked Yes11c350$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x709c…02c8backed Yes14c337.95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes47c323.68$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.492040%8 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ae0…4590backed No47c312$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.111353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+288.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4058…8b1cbacked No56c304.63$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.482441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x214c…6378backed No51c300$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1472657.7%15 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd54…b332backed No52c299.99$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1441258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed Yes42c273$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.932254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d01…1645backed Yes35c260.33$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9212029.2%35 W · 85 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked Yes38c259.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91b0…4da1backed Yes40c250.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-49.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked Yes53c249$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.972254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+27.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked Yes36c223.24$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805117.6%9 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes50c218.05$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.942927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-47.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x846d…4ab2backed Yes19c210$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.53666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d6a…7f9cbacked No65c210$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes31c205.02$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.236533.8%22 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x875d…25cfbacked Yes30c204.07$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.33955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed No69c200$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632050%10 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c60…9c5ebacked Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x652f…e2afbacked Yes54c185.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-36.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7b58…eb2bbacked No74c180$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.82568%17 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8370…eb8fbacked Yes29c180$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd129…7487backed Yes11c178.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.65944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3e9…482bbacked Yes11c176.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed No58c176$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.11070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+37.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f20…1855backed Yes32c174$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes43c173.72$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.97742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed No55c167.2$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.161752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+61.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a82…fe12backed Yes60c165.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd39c…8a14backed Yes29c157.71$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e01…757abacked Yes9c157.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.065530.9%17 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Yes7c153.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.344951%25 W · 24 L+6.4wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+5.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x75c0…65d5backed Yes33c151.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes70c150.23$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.165347.2%25 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe84c…f4e4backed Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.69633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c52…aa4cbacked Yes41c139.86$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.88425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-61.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cf9…5b5ebacked Yes36c138.63$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+74.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d5…e846backed Yes11c127.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.26825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-67.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes19c127$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a60…89b6backed Yes12c119.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7730%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19aa…40a7backed Yes36c117.76$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.17450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c58…8c00backed Yes13c111.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1740%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes34c101$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3419957.3%114 W · 85 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa32b…d02ebacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90b9…1951backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293360.6%20 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+40%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.