TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$133,402
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$149,617

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,402 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7994…c512backed Yes75c5,649$4,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.635728.1%16 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb74e…e0a6backed No9c4,772$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-79.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56f9…8463backed Yes57c4,282$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,861.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes72c3,180$2,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.3316535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed Yes51c3,113$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.661353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes66c3,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0207038.6%27 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe3d…1fc6backed Yes52c2,463$1,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.91137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick27cpaid-85.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes61c1,480$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58311039.1%43 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No25c1,391$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.43525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8625…f507backed No8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes37c1,150$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.17932.9%26 W · 53 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1a4…e9adbacked Yes63c1,134$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.91145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked No7c1,088$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.288630.2%26 W · 60 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes79c1,087$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.894126.8%11 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50d7…2741backed Yes34c1,000$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6601100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x933f…d300backed Yes35c1,000$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.51145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes35c979.27$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.251631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No42c925.78$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.4436742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x442a…7c94backed No42c895$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.896141%25 W · 36 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+93.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No31c869.44$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.5112345.5%56 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e77…e626backed Yes36c833.03$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.621136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+43.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes17c825.07$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.812445.8%11 W · 13 L+7.4wins+0.31per pick15cpaid+216.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No27c746.4$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.961,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes63c671.91$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.052142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No36c666.43$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.437954.4%43 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90b9…1951backed Yes33c650$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4341952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No16c648.4$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.033630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked No16c627.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4514947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed Yes53c624.51$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.813951.3%20 W · 19 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7e1…354dbacked Yes49c599.77$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.64425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-49.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec55…6870backed Yes34c592.9$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.83812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.37per pick50cpaid-63.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x861f…a189backed No10c571.44$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc46…bc0abacked No9c532$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…a3a4backed Yes63c511.57$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes55c489.22$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.142040%8 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbd0…edc4backed No8c468.16$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3411017.3%19 W · 91 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3cc…65c7backed Yes57c450$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.61728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-52.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf30f…a161backed Yes60c400$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked No6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.564928.6%14 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb19…8a05backed Yes34c383.23$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No6c331.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.061741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes53c299$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.531428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked No54c283.47$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.612416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-59.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed No58c280$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.32728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d01…1645backed Yes34c272$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.212029.2%35 W · 85 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50ed…cbbebacked Yes78c257.59$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes63c238.1$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.113343.6%58 W · 75 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb91…4059backed Yes80c237.25$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.26771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc44a…a403backed Yes61c235.61$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.892128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2795…6811backed No9c234$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.06850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b5a…c0bcbacked Yes65c233.91$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No58c233.26$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.167554.7%41 W · 34 L-0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes5c216.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.672055%11 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+107.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd0f5…0c6ebacked No9c215$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes67c212.36$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.18742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc6f…4987backed Yes64c210.82$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+102.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed No51c210$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.05933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes64c209.95$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5210331.1%32 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes42c205$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.13537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+50.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7828434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x214c…6378backed Yes51c199.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982657.7%15 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes33c199.79$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.7918036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked No8c189.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.511127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc74…1c6fbacked Yes53c187.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd54…b332backed Yes51c178.96$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.591258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ebe…e5ddbacked Yes36c172.22$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.22633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa18…7693backed No53c172$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.16944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes49c162.59$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.921323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick49cpaid-61.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed No11c154.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.55555.5%3 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-92.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No66c151.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013446.3%62 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c64…8f15backed No29c144.06$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed No37c140$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.86030%18 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed5d…bc81backed Yes73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes32c136$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4819957.3%114 W · 85 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50f7…3da2backed Yes80c135.03$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.031338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x964c…44acbacked No45c135$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.11050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed No38c128.17$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.232626.9%7 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-32.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes44c122.05$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-62.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes68c119.97$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.43935.9%14 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes49c114.96$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.632927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-47.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes47c108$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.241450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c00…0c2fbacked No19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes35c104.12$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.6845723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x165d…a76dbacked Yes50c100.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3417524.6%43 W · 132 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed No34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c36…67cdbacked Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a1f…cb88backed No65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+9.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x07a6…8839backed No42c99.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No23c96.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.84959.2%29 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes63c96.02$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.524540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes79c93.28$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.447646.1%35 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ab…929bbacked Yes62c90$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes30c90$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a82…fe12backed Yes58c85.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…8191backed Yes54c85.59$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.371353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes53c85.21$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0513525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf58…995dbacked No47c85.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22ec…4477backed Yes47c84$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.52650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4657…00d6backed No47c83$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.011450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.