TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$407,584
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$368,752

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $407,584 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 414 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd519…932cbacked Yes1c111,111$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.67616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick9cpaid-60.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Yes5c22,971$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.1849244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b02…0e11backed Yes10c10,291$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3199…fdf3backed Yes3c9,087$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c6,519$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.965913.6%8 W · 51 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-40.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c6,352$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5844.8%4 W · 80 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick1cpaid+489.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c5,900$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.521,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8953…e312backed Yes4c4,970$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2f2…0f64backed Yes3c2,929$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9766…e931backed Yes6c2,786$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2155…64a3backed Yes6c2,350$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0347…67c2backed Yes10c2,284$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf70a…cc10backed Yes4c2,183$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…3438backed Yes28c2,104$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.367544%33 W · 42 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b70…209dbacked Yes37c2,070$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d00…3ba3backed Yes5c2,024$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x719b…c995backed Yes10c1,998$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.347936.7%29 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda31…56b8backed Yes5c1,963$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes1c1,818$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20422.4%1 W · 41 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-17.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes3c1,702$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.541,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes6c1,700$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10217326.6%46 W · 127 L+0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf634…18bfbacked Yes5c1,585$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dc5…c9b1backed Yes5c1,559$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No79c1,556$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.297337%27 W · 46 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No70c1,503$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.6340133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c95…1689backed Yes5c1,475$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No79c1,305$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.3735049.4%173 W · 177 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb871…d447backed Yes5c1,288$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664355.8%24 W · 19 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes49c1,268$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.6239449.2%194 W · 200 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…e0eebacked Yes6c1,250$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.254129.3%12 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed No70c1,239$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.861,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Yes5c1,234$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9321446.7%100 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes2c1,200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.05969.4%9 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74f1…723bbacked Yes8c1,191$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fc…d9ecbacked Yes9c1,159$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5282…4e7ebacked Yes10c1,116$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.571010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid+11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x301d…71f9backed Yes5c1,095$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eeb…cf91backed Yes9c1,094$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b9…b017backed Yes5c1,082$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes43c1,072$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.483148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes66c1,070$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.0712649.2%62 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07f0…9b89backed Yes2c1,061$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x501b…fba0backed Yes23c1,052$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.461145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90da…4042backed Yes20c1,050$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9111…4233backed Yes5c1,035$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb63c…1579backed Yes3c1,035$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked No41c1,031$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.413043.3%13 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ccb…b85cbacked Yes10c1,022$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x644f…b126backed Yes3c1,004$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aba…e301backed Yes3c1,001$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a30…9861backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed No80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20022750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb023…6d90backed Yes59c998$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.821758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+60.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b46…95b2backed Yes6c995.39$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-49.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c988.15$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.69894.5%4 W · 85 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc40a…1f50backed Yes43c975$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.231650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0141…c2dabacked Yes53c970.66$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.651435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-37%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfec…09a7backed Yes59c953$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.083240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Yes5c940.79$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0464944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa1…d281backed Yes3c922.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f4f…aacbbacked Yes4c897.64$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc580…eb65backed Yes6c894.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506743.3%29 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8bb…e885backed No71c876$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.792955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+47.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes2c867$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.685742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ca5…140dbacked Yes12c866.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes2c834.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.43230%0 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1263…fddcbacked Yes6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502218.2%4 W · 18 L-4.2wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-66.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdeb9…4db3backed Yes6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+53.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12e3…dbd4backed Yes59c824$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.631855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+32%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf85…61b3backed Yes4c803.39$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+71.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8fc…1d5ebacked Yes4c800.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9078…26afbacked Yes4c800$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f59…1917backed Yes3c776.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x517b…be02backed Yes3c753.15$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263339.4%13 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4894…2c94backed Yes4c742.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.28per pick35cpaid-62.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x53de…b486backed Yes51c740$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.941735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc33…6c65backed Yes6c739.7$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc713…891fbacked Yes60c730$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.353259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd77e…83a4backed No57c718$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.461546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x042e…03d4backed Yes4c700$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+63.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa099…d81fbacked Yes29c699.91$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.972326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes59c690$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.793050%15 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f51…09adbacked Yes43c683$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.371747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ea7…2550backed No57c683$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.371540%6 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…ee5abacked No57c677$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.792147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefaf…22a9backed Yes8c672.26$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked No41c671$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.574334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x22ad…5a7fbacked Yes7c668.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502450%12 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+36.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9818…7cd3backed Yes59c664$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.41850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked No41c664$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.422564%16 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+27%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5cb3…5297backed Yes14c663.47$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b82…7a36backed Yes54c662.89$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.682825%7 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+35.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1969…076abacked Yes5c662.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-56.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb355…2839backed Yes15c653.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes29c653$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.681855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09be…76d5backed No50c651$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.622556%14 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb767…9b51backed No41c648$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.971631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-39.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x465c…6e53backed No41c643$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.011250%6 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes43c638$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.982951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes7c629.72$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2628842.7%123 W · 165 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.