TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Nickeil Alexander-Walker win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,895
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,649

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,895 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x19d8…1691backed Yes45c2,988$1,344 inWon+$1,643.2372241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes74c2,963$2,202 inWon+$761.286764.2%43 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked No14c2,061$295 inLost-$294.8817162.6%107 W · 64 L+10.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No10c1,541$149 inLost-$149.1828842.7%123 W · 165 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…3438backed No50c666.12$333 inLost-$333.067544%33 W · 42 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed No42c608.02$254 inLost-$254.291,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Yes58c564.79$326 inWon+$238.4642845.1%193 W · 235 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No5c557.55$29 inLost-$29.262339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No29c543.17$160 inLost-$159.638853.4%47 W · 41 L+7.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec15…9b0cbacked No4c466$20 inLost-$19.7528536.8%105 W · 180 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes76c419.88$320 inWon+$100.244429.5%13 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x517b…be02backed No6c340$20 inLost-$203339.4%13 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Yes47c300$141 inWon+$15991050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked No6c211.7$12 inLost-$11.99119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-77%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32d0…6070backed No19c200$38 inLost-$3812458.1%72 W · 52 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes40c197.94$79 inWon+$118.7622750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes79c164.23$130 inWon+$34.31,11341.6%463 W · 650 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd3b…9f3abacked No9c154.43$14 inLost-$13.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7438…b741backed No10c125.29$13 inLost-$12.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a76…2890backed Yes62c115.64$72 inWon+$43.9516052.5%84 W · 76 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No12c107.1$13 inLost-$13.231,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47b9…1e09backed No20c106.9$22 inLost-$21.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No57c75.54$43 inLost-$42.776762.7%42 W · 25 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2408…bc8abacked No56c74$41 inLost-$41.44475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf841…b2ebbacked Yes51c72.12$37 inWon+$35.2114049.3%69 W · 71 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef71…4d85backed Yes36c33.16$12 inWon+$21.36825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No69c30$21 inLost-$20.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f48…8275backed Yes67c27.73$19 inWon+$9.154156.1%23 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7efb…68a1backed No55c27.65$15 inLost-$15.08728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc32…32f8backed Yes78c24.77$19 inWon+$5.451560%9 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6747…a64fbacked Yes75c22.87$17 inWon+$5.723525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.