NBA · resolved market
Will Jalen Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6202fd324e55228e33dd6c375a960f67938a00a342b7242db9cd8ee3adad348f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb48e…d489backed Yes | 3c | 1,730$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 13c | 1,140$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.29 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…e757backed Yes | 30c | 818.91$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.67 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 11c | 699.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Yes | 22c | 676.36$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.73 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 2c | 628.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 774 | 37.5%290 W · 484 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…3438backed No | 69c | 599.97$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.99 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 29c | 500.02$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.17 | 427 | 44.5%190 W · 237 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6824…d483backed Yes | 37c | 499.97$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 29c | 468$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.47 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 19c | 434.25$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 150 | 10%15 W · 135 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…bdbabacked Yes | 22c | 424$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 4c | 403.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 221 | 40.3%89 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 378.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 63c | 327.93$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.01 | 227 | 50.2%114 W · 113 L | +24.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7a36backed Yes | 15c | 294.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…b05ebacked Yes | 5c | 288.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa152…b7bdbacked Yes | 33c | 269.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x555a…931abacked Yes | 46c | 238.71$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 21c | 235.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 24c | 187.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…cc36backed Yes | 27c | 180$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…029abacked Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 30c | 136.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 15c | 135$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 78c | 128$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdb…e70fbacked Yes | 27c | 109.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fec…f89dbacked Yes | 25c | 100.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…979ebacked Yes | 34c | 88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 18c | 86.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 73.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…9ca7backed Yes | 24c | 61.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 58.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 31c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 66c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 47c | 38.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 171 | 62.6%107 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 73c | 21.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 62c | 16.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jalen Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?this page
- Will Alperen Sengun win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Amen Thompson win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Andrew Nembhard win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Ausar Thompson win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Bennedict Mathurin win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Jalen Duren win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Josh Giddey win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Keyonte George win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Matas Buzelis win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Michael Porter Jr. win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Nickeil Alexander-Walker win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?Yes won
- Will Nikola Jovic win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Ryan Rollins win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.