NBA · resolved market
Will Jalen Duren win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde0028cb73f70f1558476b06d06d70205358283ab7e3533033b52b8e69f05c61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 12c | 3,011$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.28 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6870…5826backed Yes | 36c | 2,637$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.63 | 548 | 53.8%295 W · 253 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d7…9addbacked Yes | 49c | 2,169$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.47 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 49c | 1,861$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.05 | 221 | 40.3%89 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf1…3f2cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,592$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 2cpaid | +392.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b46…95b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,349$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 8c | 1,309$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…7d93backed Yes | 2c | 1,229$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…3438backed No | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed No | 45c | 999.99$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…b05ebacked Yes | 46c | 867.29$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.14 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 53c | 779.78$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.04 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 61c | 730.69$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.8 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07f0…9b89backed Yes | 2c | 630.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…bf17backed Yes | 5c | 574.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 48c | 551.99$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.49 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…fd3abacked Yes | 5c | 542.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…58b6backed Yes | 62c | 480.89$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 435.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…f50fbacked Yes | 14c | 413.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed No | 62c | 413.04$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.19 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10c6…19b6backed Yes | 41c | 382.95$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.48 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 373.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 56c | 354.24$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.86 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Yes | 53c | 327.31$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.47 | 229 | 48.5%111 W · 118 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…0386backed No | 61c | 305.81$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 44c | 270.13$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.92 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a5…4531backed Yes | 12c | 252.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa152…b7bdbacked Yes | 63c | 248.59$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed Yes | 7c | 212.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 487 | 51.7%252 W · 235 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 194.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 150 | 10%15 W · 135 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…2bb3backed Yes | 32c | 193.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…4da2backed Yes | 52c | 190.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 164.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…ecf3backed Yes | 6c | 156$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 13c | 154.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8261…982cbacked Yes | 20c | 153.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 53c | 139.66$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 40c | 129.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 48c | 109.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…dda9backed Yes | 50c | 99.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 49c | 81.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc190…1c59backed Yes | 62c | 80.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes | 55c | 79.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Yes | 39c | 73.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…636dbacked No | 43c | 67.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x086a…1435backed Yes | 16c | 66.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 47c | 57.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 227 | 50.2%114 W · 113 L | +24.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3fff…7e0abacked Yes | 24c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 39c | 54.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Yes | 38c | 51.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc131…efd2backed Yes | 56c | 44.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8156…07e4backed Yes | 55c | 44.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…98f8backed No | 45c | 42.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f9…54dbbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 385 | 40.3%155 W · 230 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f88…0111backed Yes | 40c | 36.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…a4cdbacked Yes | 48c | 35.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…f8d0backed Yes | 56c | 26.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fe…549abacked Yes | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe072…68fbbacked No | 50c | 19.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jalen Duren win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?this page
- Will Alperen Sengun win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Amen Thompson win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Andrew Nembhard win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Ausar Thompson win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Bennedict Mathurin win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Jalen Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Josh Giddey win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Keyonte George win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Matas Buzelis win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Michael Porter Jr. win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Nickeil Alexander-Walker win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?Yes won
- Will Nikola Jovic win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Ryan Rollins win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
- Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.