TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$269,352
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$266,227

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $269,352 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc18f…a368backed Yes43c39,069$16,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,799.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d03…7de0backed Yes43c38,940$16,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,744.220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa545…b1afbacked No57c29,302$16,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,599.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d6d…261bbacked No57c27,352$15,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,761.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x267b…5941backed No57c21,349$12,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,180.11250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed No52c8,516$4,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,106.571,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes49c4,501$2,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.3611141.4%46 W · 65 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd77b…24abbacked Yes64c3,503$2,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2301442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes44c2,502$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.092,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed Yes42c2,258$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.921752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+31.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30ee…a587backed Yes42c1,693$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.71825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed No55c1,581$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.8827445.6%125 W · 149 L+1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes19c1,295$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.637652.6%40 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Yes51c1,256$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.4221048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x231a…a82fbacked Yes45c1,233$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.545949.2%29 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45fb…c3f5backed No13c1,156$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.76425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+92.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes70c1,108$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.864245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53de…b486backed Yes56c1,030$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed Yes59c1,027$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes56c1,025$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked No41c1,001$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes2c940.78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7372.7%1 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick8cpaid-54.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes62c938$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.563228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf53c…00acbacked No41c906$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0241…162abacked Yes58c833$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.2420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a79…1ccbbacked No43c824$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d0f…af26backed No32c815$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick29cpaid+78.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes46c773.44$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.2912438.7%48 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6a…53e0backed No44c761$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90e2…7babbacked Yes59c753$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d91…89d8backed Yes68c741$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5214…95c9backed No44c735$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+94.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2247…96e8backed No44c708$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x322a…3274backed Yes56c708$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6499…05d2backed No36c701$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59d7…0217backed No41c689$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed No32c667$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.562100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick39cpaid+167.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No38c662.65$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.493348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No9c650.77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.991,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e4e…6533backed Yes59c649$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed No37c634$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.4270249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes57c633$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed No37c620$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes64c601$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0298…eadcbacked Yes66c599$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked No44c573$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No32c563$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.84333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No41c551.6$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.369935.4%35 W · 64 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-36.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c8f…8cc2backed No41c539.91$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.835137.3%19 W · 32 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8132…a491backed Yes63c536$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39dd…1bb5backed No44c514$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.842100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+115.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Yes10c501.82$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.49431.9%30 W · 64 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8490…2525backed Yes22c501.55$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfec…09a7backed No44c501$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.562100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd091…e046backed Yes56c499$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed No49c498$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed Yes56c494$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes51c489.83$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.91216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No42c481.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.9410540%42 W · 63 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1220…741abacked No32c465$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cae…c0eebacked No41c458$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.223100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+91.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8bb…e885backed Yes57c457$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4657…00d6backed Yes56c454$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc123…115cbacked Yes57c441$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9774…6d3cbacked No32c439$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3702…829dbacked No43c438$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.662100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca67…703cbacked Yes68c437$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.1620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fcc…e74cbacked Yes45c434.37$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.38911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-78.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c7…f199backed Yes68c434$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6951…cb02backed No43c426$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b71…f1d9backed No44c400$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked No33c389.99$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.692138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea25…d3aabacked No43c386$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Yes60c381.86$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.6362346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0956…9aa4backed Yes68c381$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8f…5259backed Yes48c376.31$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.455844.8%26 W · 32 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe004…7849backed No49c375.51$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0680…db1bbacked No55c363.04$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked Yes68c352$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed Yes63c342$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.4620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b63…52cfbacked Yes51c334$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5829…e46bbacked No43c332$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick28cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed No31c320$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.61910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-60%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No48c319.24$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.662853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d17…0e2bbacked No37c317$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3214…f00ebacked Yes68c316$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc112…47b0backed Yes39c305$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.95540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeba4…69fbbacked Yes47c297.28$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.77812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick45cpaid-82.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked No44c284$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+49.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6478…49f3backed Yes64c278$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked No13c257.62$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.3134032.4%110 W · 230 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No42c245.72$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.9966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4406…5eafbacked Yes56c241$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes64c240$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked Yes57c238$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No35c225$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.67742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa81d…7447backed Yes45c221.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb407…a978backed No37c219$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+35.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked Yes64c214$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.9640%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee4e…aa5abacked No36c214$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.