Fed Rates · resolved market
'No change' or '25 bps cut' favored for Fed decision in January on December 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56aab8f7ac4ae875308a6873228a115ccb43337a14fed4686063df0fc5577575
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- No changeof No change, 25 bps cut
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25c1…fe0dbacked 25 bps cut | 12c | 1,438$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed 25 bps cut | 8c | 1,105$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.01 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked 25 bps cut | 5c | 1,065$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…96f3backed 25 bps cut | 17c | 826.51$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed 25 bps cut | 6c | 659.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed 25 bps cut | 8c | 636.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed 25 bps cut | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e8…0147backed 25 bps cut | 2c | 589.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e15dbacked 25 bps cut | 16c | 560$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…7db1backed 25 bps cut | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No change | 71c | 463.19$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.79 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked 25 bps cut | 14c | 350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9146…335abacked 25 bps cut | 11c | 350$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked 25 bps cut | 16c | 242.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…6890backed 25 bps cut | 21c | 237.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed 25 bps cut | 11c | 235.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…d5afbacked 25 bps cut | 25c | 217.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed 25 bps cut | 13c | 214$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No change | 79c | 212$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed 25 bps cut | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed No change | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…4ec4backed 25 bps cut | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…96ecbacked 25 bps cut | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4535…9436backed 25 bps cut | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…af58backed 25 bps cut | 14c | 199.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed 25 bps cut | 13c | 189$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25f…0592backed 25 bps cut | 12c | 160.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed 25 bps cut | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No change | 76c | 159$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed 25 bps cut | 24c | 158.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed 25 bps cut | 9c | 150.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe2…5e6ebacked 25 bps cut | 9c | 143.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed 25 bps cut | 26c | 139.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed No change | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc49…0daabacked 25 bps cut | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed 25 bps cut | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…f991backed No change | 74c | 108$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…6fa0backed No change | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd7…77f5backed 25 bps cut | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…b63bbacked 25 bps cut | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…5dc5backed 25 bps cut | 17c | 84.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f8…351ebacked 25 bps cut | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a5…4024backed 25 bps cut | 25c | 79.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1587…901abacked 25 bps cut | 49c | 79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…415ebacked No change | 51c | 79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed No change | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No change | 74c | 54.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed No change | 77c | 47.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No change | 65c | 33.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No change | 80c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No change | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.