AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84a098d67d9cbd709150fdbc80346e31373bf13c4e954068b52db34108ec0bf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $510,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $521,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $510,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,007 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86cd…504cbacked No | 62c | 13,141$8,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,951.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 43c | 12,721$5,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,212.09 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 44c | 7,473$3,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,188.97 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd36c…6b38backed No | 47c | 6,737$3,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,595.19 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +598.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x880a…e678backed Yes | 4c | 5,941$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 61c | 5,728$3,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,262 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 51c | 5,588$2,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,731.27 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 45c | 5,155$2,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,845.87 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…c6d6backed Yes | 1c | 4,500$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…5cd6backed Yes | 10c | 4,377$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 70c | 4,254$2,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.28 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 25c | 3,867$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.27 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf74a…a91cbacked Yes | 38c | 3,661$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 40c | 3,626$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.9 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d5…a273backed Yes | 26c | 3,327$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.47 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +233.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked No | 70c | 3,308$2,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.15 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4e…411abacked Yes | 61c | 3,000$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed No | 56c | 2,922$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.41 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 68c | 2,644$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.97 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes | 44c | 2,637$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.95 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…ffa3backed No | 61c | 2,524$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.29 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7336…1f7bbacked Yes | 63c | 2,500$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 72c | 2,389$1,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.62 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7255…67e0backed No | 79c | 2,362$1,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2f…017abacked Yes | 4c | 2,315$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed No | 27c | 2,277$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.21 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…78bdbacked Yes | 76c | 2,255$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,716.88 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32a3…a818backed No | 60c | 2,198$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.12 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 2,149$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.75 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…dd15backed Yes | 74c | 2,087$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 73c | 1,983$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.77 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…bf5ebacked No | 64c | 1,948$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…e2c5backed Yes | 66c | 1,929$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.71 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 52c | 1,904$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.16 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c1…7decbacked Yes | 49c | 1,859$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 40c | 1,806$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.71 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed Yes | 32c | 1,685$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 75c | 1,663$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.12 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 42c | 1,656$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.85 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Yes | 54c | 1,637$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.94 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 73c | 1,633$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.69 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6f…5e44backed Yes | 35c | 1,599$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 47c | 1,567$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.74 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 38c | 1,524$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.51 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…849cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,497$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 27c | 1,471$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.83 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed No | 27c | 1,471$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 33c | 1,461$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.73 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed No | 25c | 1,451$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked Yes | 74c | 1,437$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.63 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 60c | 1,357$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.03 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…ef0abacked Yes | 52c | 1,337$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked No | 26c | 1,337$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.07 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,326$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…65c5backed Yes | 74c | 1,312$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 61c | 1,294$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.2 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 75c | 1,272$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.33 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed Yes | 73c | 1,252$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.96 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed No | 27c | 1,245$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…e696backed Yes | 61c | 1,237$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked No | 27c | 1,221$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 59c | 1,208$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acc…debabacked Yes | 72c | 1,182$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…5adebacked Yes | 73c | 1,164$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 39c | 1,160$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.27 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked No | 27c | 1,159$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.07 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 26c | 1,155$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.48 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…3497backed No | 27c | 1,134$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed Yes | 70c | 1,125$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.88 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 66c | 1,112$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.62 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 1,108$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked Yes | 76c | 1,104$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 37c | 1,100$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked Yes | 73c | 1,098$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 38c | 1,089$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.34 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 56c | 1,083$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.73 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…929fbacked Yes | 60c | 1,063$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…b332backed Yes | 73c | 1,059$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 76c | 1,059$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.02 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked No | 27c | 1,047$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…4c53backed No | 28c | 1,042$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04c…69f0backed Yes | 68c | 1,034$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed No | 34c | 1,019$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.69 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked No | 27c | 1,015$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.95 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,008$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 33c | 1,000$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.29 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7401…05c6backed Yes | 61c | 999.49$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 75c | 970$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 967.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…ce8cbacked No | 59c | 943.52$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f0…f05fbacked No | 26c | 942$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…ff19backed Yes | 57c | 923$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed No | 27c | 923$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.79 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked No | 21c | 923$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.17 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 75c | 904$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…c74abacked Yes | 55c | 900$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -65%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa905…fcf1backed No | 46c | 897.67$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked Yes | 78c | 885$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?this page
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?No won
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?No won
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.