AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea545a6f18395f2e6a6edb3154e19ac51fd5b1296e56e4e77a7067e392a6943f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $431,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $395,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $431,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 357 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8cb…ea19backed Yes | 11c | 26,889$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d5…a273backed Yes | 10c | 12,455$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +233.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 12,155$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.51 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked No | 76c | 10,987$8,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,617.52 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5311…cbd0backed Yes | 22c | 10,500$2,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,316.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aea…7749backed Yes | 23c | 10,449$2,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,403.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 16c | 5,080$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.47 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6f35backed Yes | 16c | 5,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…81f2backed No | 72c | 4,888$3,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…849cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,852$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 4,818$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.44 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes | 11c | 4,240$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30aa…2bddbacked Yes | 13c | 4,000$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc69…66bbbacked Yes | 5c | 3,684$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…f1bebacked No | 78c | 3,620$2,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 20c | 3,618$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.55 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…be16backed Yes | 11c | 3,519$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795f…78a6backed No | 78c | 3,500$2,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…4832backed No | 78c | 3,380$2,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 3,293$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.66 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…5d56backed Yes | 10c | 3,146$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7336…1f7bbacked Yes | 17c | 3,100$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 2,887$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.67 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,859$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.67 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,854$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.77 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90dc…a442backed Yes | 6c | 2,603$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…f8bcbacked Yes | 8c | 2,547$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 2,523$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.31 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf74a…a91cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,462$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…ae93backed Yes | 20c | 2,443$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 4c | 2,207$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…c74abacked Yes | 23c | 2,200$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.2 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -65%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…4511backed Yes | 24c | 2,117$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 76c | 2,111$1,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.66 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 2,039$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…9829backed Yes | 9c | 2,021$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,018$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 1,931$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.76 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 1,916$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 1,867$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 80c | 1,836$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,800$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…0c28backed Yes | 9c | 1,576$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.86 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,569$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed No | 71c | 1,567$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.72 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…684bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,558$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…ef0abacked Yes | 4c | 1,533$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 1,532$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…2c40backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037d…161bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,500$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ac…e928backed Yes | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 1,479$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.41 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf90b…cb6cbacked Yes | 35c | 1,470$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…9aabbacked Yes | 22c | 1,447$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…fb97backed Yes | 21c | 1,342$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 75c | 1,320$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.92 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c60…9c5ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,282$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…97cebacked Yes | 24c | 1,251$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…6a60backed Yes | 24c | 1,250$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.36per pick | 51cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7352…e156backed Yes | 11c | 1,238$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.02 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba1…bdbcbacked Yes | 12c | 1,223$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…2e0bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,180$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 1,157$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.07 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6181…ad60backed Yes | 12c | 1,106$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1af…a64dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,043$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 66c | 1,026$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.92 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…6777backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…e02fbacked Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Yes | 28c | 982.93$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf018…1c24backed Yes | 39c | 951.58$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b9…c16cbacked Yes | 5c | 950.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…1acdbacked No | 76c | 923$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked No | 75c | 917.27$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.19 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…df05backed Yes | 22c | 900.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 76c | 899.94$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.09 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 74c | 856$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.87 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb6…ee99backed Yes | 11c | 848.1$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 14c | 842.79$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.47 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc1…526fbacked Yes | 24c | 833.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 77c | 830.64$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.32 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…f2bdbacked Yes | 13c | 812.06$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 13c | 764.56$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.07 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 722.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 709.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa62…7d32backed Yes | 19c | 706.68$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…e65abacked Yes | 21c | 700.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 10c | 678.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 26c | 651.59$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.52 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 44cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb133…c5adbacked Yes | 24c | 641.6$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.62 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c05…e59abacked Yes | 17c | 632.76$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 37c | 600$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.6 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb94…96bebacked Yes | 12c | 599.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016d…12babacked Yes | 17c | 594.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4967…3701backed Yes | 24c | 587.74$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed No | 76c | 579.9$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…e696backed Yes | 36c | 562.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f6…845cbacked Yes | 18c | 561.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7401…05c6backed Yes | 20c | 550$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?this page
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?No won
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?No won
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.