AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd94caf8a5edad0c9191eda1f9bf71f0e5b7c75e3dba8327e8aa2e83055ada7f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $549,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $508,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $549,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 287 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8cb…ea19backed Yes | 10c | 29,170$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 11,903$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.54 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…be16backed Yes | 6c | 11,202$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d5…a273backed Yes | 9c | 10,333$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +233.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…849cbacked Yes | 1c | 9,055$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aea…7749backed Yes | 14c | 9,032$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 9c | 8,895$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.73 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…3a33backed Yes | 6c | 8,003$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…f7bebacked Yes | 12c | 7,065$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 6,940$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.53 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…e2c5backed Yes | 21c | 6,700$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.65 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 11c | 6,450$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.27 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 5,764$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.4 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,264$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.28 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb133…c5adbacked Yes | 12c | 5,079$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes | 5c | 5,064$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…c74abacked Yes | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -65%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6f35backed Yes | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 9c | 4,998$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30aa…2bddbacked Yes | 9c | 4,591$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 4,470$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 4,377$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.59 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f99…255dbacked Yes | 10c | 4,081$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c05…e59abacked Yes | 9c | 4,018$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…5d56backed Yes | 5c | 3,810$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ad…ec7bbacked Yes | 4c | 3,679$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 3,529$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.41 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 12c | 3,379$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.58 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 3,365$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.26 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,349$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa62…7d32backed Yes | 7c | 3,230$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f0…8e2cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,166$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2b…47d8backed Yes | 15c | 3,032$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 2,927$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.84 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89b…f512backed Yes | 13c | 2,908$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc544…05d2backed Yes | 36c | 2,766$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74d…734cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,590$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1a…37e5backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,405$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7830…783fbacked Yes | 14c | 2,395$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…f8bcbacked Yes | 11c | 2,318$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e99…573cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,283$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 2,203$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 54c | 2,169$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.07 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 8c | 2,131$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.15 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 2,038$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff0…9020backed Yes | 10c | 1,993$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0f…aa10backed Yes | 10c | 1,890$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,763$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc69…66bbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,701$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc1…526fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,700$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4a…25b2backed Yes | 12c | 1,521$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,513$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.43 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,508$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60c4…8627backed Yes | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 17c | 1,497$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,382$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.39 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf74a…a91cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,340$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 15c | 1,340$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.83 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 44cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 1,333$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.07 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…e02fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,308$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…6a60backed Yes | 16c | 1,274$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.36per pick | 51cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,199$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.34 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf018…1c24backed Yes | 19c | 1,105$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…9d1dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,100$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04c…69f0backed Yes | 14c | 1,066$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 7c | 1,056$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…1325backed Yes | 13c | 1,043$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…ae93backed Yes | 10c | 1,016$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,016$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b9…c16cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,009$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…9b59backed Yes | 8c | 1,002$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…9b23backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…9aabbacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…ff2dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…51a4backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6c…66aabacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c76…886ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f6…845cbacked Yes | 10c | 990.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…c068backed Yes | 1c | 965$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Yes | 14c | 962.24$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 6c | 946$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ff…6a84backed Yes | 1c | 920$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 2c | 913.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b62…0ff5backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x720c…1055backed Yes | 11c | 904.94$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4967…3701backed Yes | 16c | 888.82$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 5c | 835$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 825.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124c…cc50backed Yes | 13c | 797.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 6c | 787.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 3c | 781$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498e…f5c5backed Yes | 19c | 776.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x254e…517ebacked Yes | 10c | 766.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed Yes | 13c | 756.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x285c…fd76backed Yes | 2c | 755$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…64c1backed Yes | 5c | 750$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6181…ad60backed Yes | 6c | 736.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…d62fbacked Yes | 14c | 719.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?this page
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?No won
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?No won
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.