TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc26c…d62f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
107
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: UFC, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 55 out of 100; worst NHL at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT6943.5%30 W · 39 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 69 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canadiens vs. Sabresbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+216%+$216
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Capitals vs. Krakenbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Sharks vs. Canucksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+85.2%+$34.07
Blackhawks vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+53.8%+$21.54
Stars vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Jets vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Predators vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+96.1%+$38.43
Golden Knights vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+108.3%+$43.33
Kings vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Sabres vs. Maple Leafsbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+104.1%+$41.63
Utah vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Predators vs. Golden Knightsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Oilers vs. Canucksbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+61.3%+$24.52
Bruins vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Panthers vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Hurricanes vs. Devilsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+78.9%+$47.32
Capitals vs. Predatorsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Blue Jackets vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Golden Knights vs. Sharksbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+72.4%+$28.97
Penguins vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+108.3%+$43.33
Devils vs. Jetsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Kings vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Blues vs. Golden Knightsbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Islanders vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 69 picks, newest first.
UFClast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT2152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+50.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Anthony Hernandez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
UFC Fight Night: Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Vitor Petrino · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$13.33
UFC Fight Night: Roman Dolidze vs. Reinier de Ridder (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Roman Dolidze · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Ian Machado Garry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)backed Gillian Robertson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
UFC 330: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Kauê Fernandes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC 330: Jeremiah Wells vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Jeremiah Wells · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+900%+$90
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Conor McGregor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Paddy Pimblett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$39.77
UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Cory Sandhagen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Robert Whittaker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$26.6
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Justin Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$75.24
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Ciryl Gane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Aiemann Zahabi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Derrick Lewis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Bo Nickal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+37%+$18.49
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Diego Lopes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$34.75
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+203%+$203.03
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed O'Malley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+51.5%+$20.61
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Lewis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$20
UFC 324: Namajunas vs. Silva (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+37%+$36.99
All 21 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$140.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.