TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Sabres vs. Maple Leafs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sabresof Sabres, Maple Leafs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,181,704
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,236,948

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,181,704 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9976…67dabacked Sabres49c261,692$127,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133,964.6319848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Maple Leafs51c86,569$43,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,884.5467051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Maple Leafs51c79,487$40,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,733.1948545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Maple Leafs51c48,453$24,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,710.8847951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Maple Leafs51c40,000$20,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,40025449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Maple Leafs51c34,014$17,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,347.0656152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf832…ed7bbacked Sabres49c26,673$13,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,603.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a02…726ebacked Maple Leafs52c26,400$13,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,72810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Sabres49c21,698$10,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,072.7115145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Maple Leafs52c20,900$10,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,867.9913553.3%72 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1036…d0eebacked Sabres48c20,666$9,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,746.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Maple Leafs51c15,000$7,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,699.966940.6%28 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs51c14,394$7,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,401.012,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5316…a095backed Maple Leafs52c13,771$7,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,160.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Sabres49c13,428$6,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,848.1821036.2%76 W · 134 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Sabres48c13,036$6,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,778.7426849.6%133 W · 135 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Sabres49c11,997$5,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,154.262249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Sabres49c11,845$5,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,985.261950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Maple Leafs52c11,469$5,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,963.8879350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Maple Leafs52c11,425$5,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,94161953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Sabres50c11,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,50050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Sabres49c10,217$5,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,201.191,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Sabres49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1001,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Maple Leafs51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,10033151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x991a…2411backed Sabres49c9,859$4,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,989.63560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e46…35efbacked Sabres51c9,787$4,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,797.27633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Sabres49c9,410$4,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,799.0719051.1%97 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Maple Leafs51c9,200$4,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,69226058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Maple Leafs0c8,650$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.51458.3%12 W · 133 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+135.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Sabres49c8,000$3,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,08061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Maple Leafs2c7,628$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.1217057.6%98 W · 72 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Maple Leafs10c7,300$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.4589636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Maple Leafs51c7,299$3,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,748.251,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebbb…4214backed Maple Leafs14c6,947$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.8512835.9%46 W · 82 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Maple Leafs51c6,590$3,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,360.952050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdab…2516backed Maple Leafs52c6,545$3,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,403.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Sabres48c6,403$3,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,329.548252.4%43 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Sabres48c6,304$3,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,266.851,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd6…18e4backed Sabres49c6,000$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,060933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Maple Leafs51c5,875$2,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,986.0410848.1%52 W · 56 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Sabres50c5,800$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,90033950.1%170 W · 169 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Sabres47c5,747$2,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,045.81,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Sabres50c5,449$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,748.9828152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1114…de8cbacked Maple Leafs51c5,449$2,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,769.46250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b09…4ac4backed Sabres49c5,238$2,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,671.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Maple Leafs51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,55027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf54b…8a63backed Sabres49c4,958$2,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,528.595149%25 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Sabres48c4,928$2,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,562.317162%44 W · 27 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Maple Leafs51c4,912$2,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,505.1693953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbc7…fa1ebacked Sabres49c4,757$2,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,426.122100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Maple Leafs39c4,753$1,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,834.831,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe59b…baacbacked Maple Leafs51c4,595$2,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,327.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Maple Leafs41c4,577$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,870.183,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked Maple Leafs18c4,227$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.281050%5 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98f7…b3e4backed Maple Leafs52c4,082$2,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,122.7810753.3%57 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Maple Leafs0c4,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8758…01e0backed Maple Leafs51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.992524%6 W · 19 L-5.7wins-0.23per pick47cpaid-38.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Sabres54c3,377$1,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.471,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Maple Leafs51c3,302$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,683.9326955.8%150 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Sabres49c3,061$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.228848.9%43 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Maple Leafs48c3,056$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.711,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29ae…4d2cbacked Sabres64c3,004$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.517354.8%40 W · 33 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Sabres50c2,955$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,490.589249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Maple Leafs47c2,943$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.8699638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Sabres50c2,903$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,463.551,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Maple Leafs52c2,885$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Sabres48c2,800$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,45686649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x332a…c9a2backed Sabres53c2,774$1,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.051266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+40.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Sabres49c2,514$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.2932151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Maple Leafs52c2,500$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30022747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Maple Leafs47c2,465$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.0839344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Sabres67c2,390$1,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.9957157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86dc…0da4backed Sabres49c2,380$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.78250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Maple Leafs50c2,311$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.991,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x991d…c113backed Maple Leafs51c2,235$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fbe…b84fbacked Sabres48c2,124$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.6918258.2%106 W · 76 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fa5…4f56backed Sabres49c2,001$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.412661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Sabres50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00044551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x291b…2667backed Sabres50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+40.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Sabres48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.9568449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3bc…bf85backed Maple Leafs51c1,973$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.21560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x491e…bb0bbacked Sabres50c1,973$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.48520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70cf…f6cebacked Maple Leafs51c1,970$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.843636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce4d…a7fabacked Sabres50c1,948$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.6525555.3%141 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x765c…0779backed Maple Leafs51c1,800$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.0140049.3%197 W · 203 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Maple Leafs52c1,800$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.1743548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa558…1b44backed Maple Leafs50c1,688$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.834240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Maple Leafs51c1,667$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8501,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Maple Leafs51c1,636$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.361,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e04…0fa9backed Sabres48c1,624$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.74825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Sabres48c1,563$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.58134.6%28 W · 53 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-23.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5e82…7670backed Sabres49c1,510$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.24045%18 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x778d…cbe2backed Sabres50c1,510$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7553458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Sabres48c1,502$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.085855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd605…5c23backed Maple Leafs51c1,499$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.49850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b37…e15bbacked Sabres49c1,499$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.49966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b03…8cb7backed Sabres49c1,498$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.98742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4984…735abacked Maple Leafs51c1,498$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.98850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc2d…5eb1backed Maple Leafs51c1,496$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.96850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5d4c…7b8bbacked Sabres49c1,496$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.96633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.