NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66a424c4c0345960cdaad49ccc788800c4b21e9a57c0b6d23fdff72250011551
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5aa…1449backed Under | 49c | 15,000$7,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,350 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 13,198$6,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,335.27 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 51c | 10,141$5,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,969.29 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 7,796$4,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,742.08 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 6,303$3,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,088.61 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 52c | 6,240$3,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,995.2 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 51c | 4,350$2,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,131.52 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…c9a2backed Over | 58c | 1,223$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.09 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 48c | 1,150$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552 | 353 | 49.6%175 W · 178 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5200backed Over | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.8 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 52c | 1,005$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.25 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 48c | 981.98$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.35 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa70b…7a8abacked Over | 52c | 834.62$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.62 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 51c | 547.06$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.06 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 49c | 525$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.25 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 7c | 404$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…85cebacked Under | 51c | 392.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Under | 49c | 351.85$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.97 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 45c | 314$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.73 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 51c | 236.6$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.93 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…19dcbacked Under | 49c | 198$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 53c | 189.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 152 | 57.2%87 W · 65 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf19…976bbacked Over | 51c | 137.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Under | 49c | 136.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 47c | 129.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 123.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Under | 47c | 122$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Under | 49c | 104$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…2964backed Under | 49c | 99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 50c | 98.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 48c | 92.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 162 | 54.9%89 W · 73 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4161…272dbacked Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 49c | 74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 49c | 71.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Under | 35c | 58.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Under | 49c | 51.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…6373backed Under | 59c | 51.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…fde1backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa993…1c15backed Under | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Under | 50c | 30.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Over | 51c | 30.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc1…3e21backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17bf…5a53backed Over | 58c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -6.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc27f…12a9backed Over | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Over | 52c | 27.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Over | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Over | 52c | 24.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dde…b1aebacked Under | 50c | 22.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Over | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5this page
- Sabres vs. Maple LeafsSabres won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.