NHL · resolved market
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a45e4a73e34ac1f8d6b42c8888f05cb23b30eef0e59828e0b887400ad8afde3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Maple Leafs, Sabres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70cf…f6cebacked Maple Leafs | 32c | 929.09$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.31 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Maple Leafs | 31c | 819$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.89 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Sabres | 69c | 770$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.7 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Sabres | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sabres | 68c | 482.63$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.44 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…c9a2backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 428.17$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.83 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Sabres | 71c | 369.7$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.7 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Maple Leafs | 30c | 355.64$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.99 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Sabres | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sabres | 68c | 299.03$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Sabres | 70c | 214.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Maple Leafs | 28c | 167.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Maple Leafs | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Maple Leafs | 32c | 125.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 120.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Maple Leafs | 32c | 108$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Maple Leafs | 32c | 106.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Sabres | 68c | 100.36$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Sabres | 70c | 86.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Maple Leafs | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Maple Leafs | 31c | 79.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Sabres | 58c | 74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Sabres | 72c | 69.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…ab18backed Sabres | 68c | 55.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Maple Leafs | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 162 | 37%60 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Maple Leafs | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Sabres | 70c | 44.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Sabres | 58c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Sabres | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Sabres | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Maple Leafs | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5a…0849backed Sabres | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Sabres | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Sabres | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Sabres | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +36%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sabres | 67c | 23.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…1f46backed Sabres | 72c | 23.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Sabres | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Sabres | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Sabres | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…77babacked Sabres | 68c | 19.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Sabres | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Sabres | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Sabres | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Sabres | 69c | 18.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d746backed Sabres | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Sabres | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Sabres | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…840ebacked Sabres | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)this page
- Sabres vs. Maple LeafsSabres won
- Sabres vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.