NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec498b022c101ea25779173e474009c2ff21df9ff184058a67d49c8b82d82fc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Sabres, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Sabres | 30c | 6,767$2,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,737.6 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 5,203$3,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,641.99 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Sabres | 30c | 2,520$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,756.32 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Maple Leafs | 70c | 1,464$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.27 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Maple Leafs | 70c | 1,317$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.38 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Maple Leafs | 70c | 1,005$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.45 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Sabres | 30c | 428.56$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.99 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Sabres | 31c | 409$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.84 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a36…4121backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 203.16$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.21 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Sabres | 30c | 116.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Sabres | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Maple Leafs | 71c | 84.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Maple Leafs | 72c | 79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadc5…e2afbacked Maple Leafs | 70c | 71.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Sabres | 29c | 58.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Sabres | 30c | 53.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sabres | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Maple Leafs | 70c | 47.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sabres | 28c | 35.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf2…ecfbbacked Sabres | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Sabres vs. Maple LeafsSabres won
- Sabres vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.