TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,998,741
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,527,570

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,998,741 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 496 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbad2…5296backed Yes7c138,649$9,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,288.477627.6%21 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes15c122,425$18,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,091.785446.3%25 W · 29 L+7.3wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+159.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xee81…c46fbacked Yes25c83,000$20,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,401.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a4e…1370backed Yes7c63,661$4,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,644.65425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-68%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes3c61,813$1,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,983.287133.8%24 W · 47 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes10c54,176$5,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,242.2840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes11c52,925$5,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,953.541822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-52.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes15c44,382$6,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,788.7440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes1c41,709$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.47714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-74.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Yes15c30,276$4,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,560.392114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-57.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes9c24,928$2,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,150.89119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-68.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Yes2c23,874$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.421020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-68.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes11c21,047$2,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,282.4340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked Yes1c18,657$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-32.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c15,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb07c…aa73backed Yes0c15,461$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9044…6364backed Yes1c15,132$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes7c14,000$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.741127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid+63.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cd8…f8c7backed Yes1c13,549$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed Yes2c13,371$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.13147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-88.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes15c12,406$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,844.724515.6%7 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26ff…8ed7backed No78c12,082$9,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,649.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56d4…9c57backed Yes26c11,100$2,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,851.99933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-45.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea81…81b9backed No74c10,896$8,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,832.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes24c10,757$2,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,560.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7938…95ccbacked Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe913…e857backed Yes7c9,960$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes18c9,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,619.98714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-74.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes9c8,138$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.68520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-55.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes14c7,998$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.87742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c7,758$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.3630%0 W · 63 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78ae…143abacked Yes18c7,716$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.772927.6%8 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c7,442$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.85318.9%10 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…02ecbacked Yes2c6,882$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69b9…1284backed Yes27c6,686$1,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes8c6,676$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-69.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa777…f847backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd90…ab3ebacked Yes14c6,014$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.891050%5 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5f6…adc3backed Yes19c6,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ddd…372dbacked Yes17c6,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No79c6,000$4,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes5c5,988$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes6c5,907$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.2960%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes1c5,651$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.432268.2%15 W · 7 L+4.4wins+0.20per pick48cpaid+25.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x56da…fca2backed Yes16c5,552$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.962218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-73.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c5,516$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.01333%1 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-89.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7cc…644ebacked Yes11c5,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed6…8840backed Yes8c5,137$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f24…513ebacked Yes10c5,040$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.951747.1%8 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.21per pick26cpaid+49.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes8c5,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes7c5,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-79.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x914b…a886backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed Yes17c5,000$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes11c4,947$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.281315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-59.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed No73c4,933$3,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.86911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-84.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes14c4,700$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.418236.6%30 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Yes7c4,658$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+69.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes8c4,656$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.11293.4%1 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-92.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed Yes20c4,460$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.91728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-54.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes10c4,322$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.752326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3572…76c4backed Yes28c4,304$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed Yes13c4,163$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes11c4,090$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.561020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56eb…076abacked No74c4,078$3,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.791145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da8…8d72backed Yes15c4,075$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f0…2469backed Yes15c4,068$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.522259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+42.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x08f5…5131backed Yes1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6350…2f97backed Yes1c3,985$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2814…68dbbacked Yes7c3,935$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Yes16c3,900$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.6940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22ae…af00backed Yes10c3,882$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.481330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa43d…df8ebacked No80c3,715$2,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b4…1e3ebacked No75c3,667$2,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.67666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes5c3,538$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes23c3,500$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.91714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-79.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcefc…14e4backed Yes27c3,489$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes18c3,454$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.023616.7%6 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0898…3c6dbacked Yes6c3,410$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes1c3,400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf998…1f41backed Yes21c3,350$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.5540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes7c3,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.31616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-69.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes8c3,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes7c2,995$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa89c…398fbacked Yes20c2,963$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.93450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes9c2,893$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.381225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…1d80backed Yes17c2,884$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.0740%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes7c2,778$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes6c2,710$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.6140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes3c2,709$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.35559.1%5 W · 50 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-60.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd18d…fc51backed Yes14c2,610$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.36333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No77c2,605$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.41070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked No80c2,605$2,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.93540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-49.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cac…6f43backed Yes20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes23c2,397$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.9213419.4%26 W · 108 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b43…9396backed Yes1c2,369$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dd5…d861backed Yes1c2,222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05bf…5fa8backed Yes1c2,203$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32d0…6070backed No78c2,154$1,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.751650%8 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-29.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf95f…f988backed Yes27c2,126$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.53540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9310…536ebacked Yes1c2,100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2350%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.