Olympics · resolved market
Will France win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2170018aad4cbd74ffbdf558f111c0e3bc76cb2027ca64e9590ce6cafe368bf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $900,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $413,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $900,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 0c | 193,248$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.69 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 0c | 130,679$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.64 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…ecf5backed Yes | 0c | 64,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 48,207$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 0c | 42,400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 83 | 9.6%8 W · 75 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 0c | 29,583$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee81…c46fbacked Yes | 1c | 27,000$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 1c | 14,900$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…a655backed Yes | 0c | 14,683$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…c16abacked Yes | 0c | 14,498$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…a356backed Yes | 0c | 12,540$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 0c | 11,110$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 10,146$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf915…8720backed Yes | 0c | 10,096$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Yes | 0c | 9,591$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7a2abacked Yes | 1c | 7,026$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 6,009$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 1c | 5,884$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 5,071$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x493d…a4e3backed Yes | 1c | 4,727$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…613dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,727$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd732…ebb4backed Yes | 1c | 4,057$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 0c | 3,065$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…3dd4backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…c231backed Yes | 0c | 2,895$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 2,292$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…81a1backed Yes | 1c | 1,216$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…4280backed Yes | 1c | 1,026$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will France win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Austria win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Canada win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will China win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Japan win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Netherlands win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Sweden win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Switzerland win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.