TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,714,481
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$938,737

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,714,481 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7432…c16abacked Yes0c104,592$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41c2…e838backed Yes2c65,269$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes1c56,863$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.42293.4%1 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-92.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes1c56,339$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.6550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes1c46,935$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.25839.6%8 W · 75 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c43,000$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c41,681$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.01180%0 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes0c38,696$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.39450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf915…8720backed Yes0c37,373$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c34,996$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.35333%1 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-89.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes0c34,341$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1b2…a321backed Yes1c33,648$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.3490%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e6b…541cbacked Yes0c30,120$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes1c30,018$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.758236.6%30 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Yes1c22,421$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.682114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-57.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa6…2ff3backed Yes0c22,043$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes1c20,198$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.32185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-82.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes1c20,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006923.2%16 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd15…4a07backed Yes1c18,712$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c15,157$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.23630%0 W · 63 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3963…f6b6backed Yes1c14,578$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ea…a356backed Yes0c14,502$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3202…6a46backed Yes2c14,155$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14f7…4ef7backed Yes0c13,773$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.55120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c13,078$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.21420%0 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa7f…8a58backed Yes2c12,482$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1991631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-42.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes1c12,159$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.84559.1%5 W · 50 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-60.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1571…3d54backed Yes1c11,285$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0049…3a9abacked Yes2c10,760$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.3360%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes1c10,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c9,900$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.77133.8%24 W · 47 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes1c8,887$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.65220%0 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90a2…293bbacked Yes0c8,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd45…3dd4backed Yes1c8,500$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.24714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-70.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb262…4018backed Yes1c8,392$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8370%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b43…9396backed Yes0c8,333$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd568…ba70backed Yes0c8,008$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0580%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes0c7,900$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf462…a984backed Yes1c7,823$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f00…f68fbacked Yes0c7,663$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecc4…7a2abacked Yes1c7,630$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.771513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-79.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab6…cfecbacked Yes0c6,580$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7382…98c4backed Yes3c5,975$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff49…2f07backed Yes2c5,752$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x43ed…a5ecbacked Yes1c5,750$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc6…c936backed Yes1c5,548$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf77b…7c20backed Yes1c5,439$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.59633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fa7…eb68backed Yes2c5,078$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-56%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dd5…d861backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb07c…aa73backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc7b…250dbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes1c4,606$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.961315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-59.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x015d…2481backed Yes1c4,384$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb3…0747backed Yes2c4,249$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes0c4,084$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.22442.3%1 W · 43 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-75.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a58…28bebacked Yes2c4,035$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404515.6%7 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c3,947$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.31120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0af7…9f48backed Yes3c3,886$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c3,614$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.84160%0 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc274…9cf3backed Yes1c3,371$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1443…e7bebacked Yes0c3,301$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb5…6a8dbacked Yes0c3,300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2efd…44c9backed Yes2c3,283$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5789…a66abacked Yes2c3,170$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cd2…1f27backed Yes1c3,116$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4451…fcbebacked Yes2c3,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1af…701ebacked Yes1c3,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c2,949$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.04100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb4b…5166backed Yes1c2,930$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1590%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3657…c5e7backed Yes1c2,775$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8721…4adebacked Yes1c2,718$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1acd…c664backed Yes0c2,630$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb87c…dba5backed Yes0c2,572$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e9…0f1fbacked Yes1c2,564$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x061d…48eabacked Yes1c2,506$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes2c2,494$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0913419.4%26 W · 108 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb5…d131backed Yes1c2,473$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82c6…f1f9backed Yes2c2,381$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e6…fd30backed Yes2c2,308$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd8…f8c7backed Yes0c2,296$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes0c2,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2135…ec29backed Yes1c2,198$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e3f…f0f5backed Yes1c2,195$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,178$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.352448.2%20 W · 224 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes2c2,040$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.31910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-82%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f53…06debacked Yes2c2,036$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae2d…9ad6backed Yes2c2,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0185…79c7backed Yes1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31d6…3f8dbacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Yes1c2,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeea0…5adfbacked Yes2c1,970$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.392119%4 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-43.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cd3…5c96backed Yes2c1,945$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08a3…d653backed Yes1c1,920$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ab…b0b3backed Yes1c1,872$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb242…4280backed Yes1c1,759$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0640…4c5cbacked Yes1c1,600$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707b…416abacked Yes2c1,585$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2980%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f0a…1fd4backed Yes1c1,585$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.