TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,161,092
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$786,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,161,092 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7432…c16abacked Yes1c73,124$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.0140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes2c73,104$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.88839.6%8 W · 75 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c36,218$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.88180%0 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd8…f8c7backed Yes0c33,852$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes2c30,553$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.117627.6%21 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f7…4ef7backed Yes1c25,837$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.63120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes3c22,001$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.2680%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes2c20,016$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.325446.3%25 W · 29 L+7.3wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+159.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c16,245$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.94333%1 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-89.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c73…44f4backed Yes6c14,529$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0049…3a9abacked Yes1c14,048$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c13,780$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.19630%0 W · 63 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9381…0390backed Yes1c13,402$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7670%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes5c12,969$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.595341.5%22 W · 31 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a73…c046backed Yes2c12,350$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.8120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d95…74ffbacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes1c11,196$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.02220%0 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked Yes14c10,892$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.911330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8721…4adebacked Yes0c10,771$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc70a…8d2dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914b…a886backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes2c9,436$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.071315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-59.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd45…3dd4backed Yes1c9,155$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.15714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-70.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e6…fd30backed Yes1c8,648$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc64e…fd52backed Yes7c8,100$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes2c7,780$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.94559.1%5 W · 50 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-60.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9cf…53a1backed Yes1c7,536$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Yes5c7,357$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fec…3572backed Yes3c7,047$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.01520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5789…a66abacked Yes1c6,749$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3bb…dbdebacked Yes1c6,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf915…8720backed Yes1c5,973$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0af7…9f48backed Yes1c5,771$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf74…08babacked Yes2c5,644$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecc4…7a2abacked Yes7c5,556$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.071513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-79.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x965f…a9a9backed Yes1c5,476$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1b2…a321backed Yes6c5,201$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.9390%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes4c5,108$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2efd…44c9backed Yes8c5,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes2c5,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes2c5,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes2c4,943$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d51…6c59backed Yes2c4,740$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02b4…0ac6backed Yes2c4,630$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcb6…ccecbacked Yes0c4,561$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes7c4,300$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-49.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb68b…b926backed Yes5c4,224$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes3c4,200$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.143737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e40…5b6abacked Yes2c4,106$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes7c4,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2806923.2%16 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c3,905$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.99420%0 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Yes6c3,600$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-84.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x115c…f309backed Yes2c3,521$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33dc…bb81backed Yes1c3,477$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes9c3,297$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300293.4%1 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-92.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d84…e174backed Yes2c3,262$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.45520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-63.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Yes2c3,252$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.422114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-57.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed Yes9c3,157$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.95933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes4c3,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c2,934$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.06160%0 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes0c2,757$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3929…c3f2backed Yes2c2,654$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadad…f309backed Yes1c2,643$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b4e…6e86backed Yes2c2,599$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e06…c72cbacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes6c2,309$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.081020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x707b…416abacked Yes1c2,245$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1280%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13a0…012dbacked Yes3c2,242$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c2,132$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.23100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd859…38c5backed Yes8c2,080$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2278…dc9abacked Yes0c2,051$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9173…bed3backed Yes5c2,019$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x534b…983fbacked Yes4c2,000$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.96540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes6c2,000$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1192321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe47c…85b0backed Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5227…da23backed Yes1c2,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f00…7addbacked Yes8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a54…d776backed Yes1c2,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad87…6a86backed Yes2c2,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3540%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Yes3c1,983$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.581020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-68.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5045…0540backed Yes1c1,931$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.58333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5554…b12dbacked Yes2c1,614$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.89100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes4c1,596$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.321127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid+63.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x68fd…e51abacked Yes2c1,570$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c67…56d3backed Yes1c1,565$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43f7…35e5backed Yes14c1,533$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Yes6c1,500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ec…8692backed Yes3c1,472$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-80.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60cb…5306backed Yes1c1,371$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes10c1,309$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.19119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-68.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes6c1,300$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-74%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3465…7082backed Yes4c1,297$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbba8…f383backed Yes1c1,295$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa7f…8a58backed Yes3c1,271$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-42.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f8…3e02backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1680…f33abacked Yes2c1,176$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3823…ee1ebacked Yes18c1,105$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes16c1,005$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.