Olympics · resolved market
Will Switzerland win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2b7b629b366cf9c2fad63d9afdbfe1ed427536219d7329a5ee2b96f3b6e08b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $800,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $315,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $800,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 0c | 145,967$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.78 | 83 | 9.6%8 W · 75 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 1c | 38,956$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.94 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes | 0c | 30,121$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.49 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…ecf5backed Yes | 0c | 28,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 27,330$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…4ef7backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd458…b521backed Yes | 0c | 18,657$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes | 0c | 17,534$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 16,564$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…44c9backed Yes | 1c | 14,104$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…d819backed Yes | 1c | 13,280$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…a356backed Yes | 0c | 12,905$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 10,628$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fc…0453backed Yes | 1c | 10,039$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2135…ec29backed Yes | 0c | 9,534$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…2318backed Yes | 0c | 9,398$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1af…701ebacked Yes | 0c | 9,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a73…c046backed Yes | 0c | 8,600$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba5…660cbacked Yes | 0c | 8,581$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…bb81backed Yes | 0c | 8,355$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf915…8720backed Yes | 0c | 7,478$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 1c | 7,236$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…ed9fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,680$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd76…e830backed Yes | 1c | 6,515$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 1c | 5,890$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 5,544$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…1c08backed Yes | 1c | 5,335$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc964…0631backed Yes | 1c | 4,825$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a0…012dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,614$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…4280backed Yes | 0c | 4,048$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…0f40backed Yes | 0c | 3,626$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 3,377$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…8c4fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,336$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7c…ef24backed Yes | 1c | 2,079$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x289d…ee6bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,006$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,923$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 1c | 1,833$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0185…79c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,757$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…416abacked Yes | 1c | 1,643$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…889fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,620$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…d3adbacked Yes | 1c | 1,580$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115c…f309backed Yes | 1c | 1,469$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,464$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…e174backed Yes | 1c | 1,419$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…58d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,401$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…4a49backed Yes | 1c | 1,223$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc9…2e3cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4461…5999backed Yes | 2c | 1,089$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053f…2c01backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0d…25a7backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 2c | 874.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 2c | 613.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -82%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Switzerland win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Austria win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Canada win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will China win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will France win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Japan win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Netherlands win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Sweden win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.