Olympics · resolved market
Will Netherlands win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c42e80712aa1905009b3014b7d622fd505b4d87dd9d47854a13cbd2a5ff4ca4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,110,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $245,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,110,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 0c | 115,014$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.24 | 83 | 9.6%8 W · 75 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…f608backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…bc2dbacked Yes | 0c | 87,300$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4985…1367backed Yes | 0c | 70,499$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502a…7ee1backed Yes | 0c | 64,900$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a73…c046backed Yes | 0c | 38,263$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b94…c334backed Yes | 0c | 31,510$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78f8…c07ebacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3239…cb61backed Yes | 0c | 29,080$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…4df5backed Yes | 0c | 29,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8157…606cbacked Yes | 0c | 28,570$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2871…b108backed Yes | 0c | 28,320$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…03a8backed Yes | 0c | 28,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d54…db98backed Yes | 0c | 27,600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019f…1f4dbacked Yes | 0c | 27,500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…c993backed Yes | 1c | 24,329$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaa…717ebacked Yes | 0c | 22,850$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,664$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd5…d861backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…c03bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,540$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 1c | 16,929$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.64 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05bf…5fa8backed Yes | 0c | 15,842$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf95f…f988backed Yes | 1c | 13,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,206$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3e…abeabacked Yes | 0c | 6,302$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 5,804$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 1c | 5,702$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…250dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 1c | 3,586$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 2c | 3,223$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 2,347$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 2,146$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 1c | 1,910$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked Yes | 1c | 1,366$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…bf36backed Yes | 2c | 1,255$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 2c | 1,249$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 2c | 886.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -82%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netherlands win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Austria win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Canada win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will China win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will France win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Japan win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Sweden win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Switzerland win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.