AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56e2df24054981fb2c88ce4c9aa885dc451487444ee27f43d821268b68690068
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $505,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $478,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $505,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 684 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86cd…504cbacked No | 71c | 14,317$10,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,178.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked No | 52c | 13,607$7,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,537.09 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…a652backed Yes | 17c | 13,364$2,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,271.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 64c | 11,255$7,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,105.42 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cb…ea19backed Yes | 29c | 10,241$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 9c | 10,091$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.08 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf74a…a91cbacked Yes | 14c | 10,019$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d5…a273backed Yes | 25c | 10,019$2,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,458.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +233.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 30c | 7,263$2,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 57c | 6,194$3,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,638.42 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 4c | 6,018$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.76 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30aa…2bddbacked Yes | 30c | 5,158$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 4,507$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.71 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 4,150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes | 33c | 4,027$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…7a9dbacked No | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6f35backed Yes | 40c | 4,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 74c | 3,648$2,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.88 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 15c | 3,641$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.75 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked No | 54c | 3,340$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked No | 78c | 3,105$2,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.43 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0e…0c15backed Yes | 43c | 3,069$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 51c | 3,068$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.54 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4e…411abacked Yes | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 19c | 2,971$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…849cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,718$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked No | 64c | 2,694$1,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.93 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 12c | 2,672$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.86 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…ef0abacked Yes | 26c | 2,642$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 46c | 2,517$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.76 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…f7bebacked Yes | 25c | 2,452$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 2,416$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.66 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…ae93backed Yes | 42c | 2,361$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 62c | 2,320$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72e6…bc6dbacked Yes | 44c | 2,256$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 5c | 2,198$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.79 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bed…6afabacked Yes | 46c | 2,188$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 78c | 2,175$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.53 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…2609backed No | 66c | 2,170$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.74 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…5d56backed Yes | 28c | 2,121$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 2,119$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.49 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 80c | 2,031$1,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.39 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…64c1backed Yes | 12c | 2,030$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…8908backed No | 71c | 1,987$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.31 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…ffa3backed No | 66c | 1,969$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.05 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 39c | 1,917$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.43 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,896$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.15 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c9…16dbbacked Yes | 41c | 1,895$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 55c | 1,860$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.77 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 33c | 1,812$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.23 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…f8bcbacked Yes | 7c | 1,790$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 63c | 1,764$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.29 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 1,734$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.56 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…e2c5backed Yes | 62c | 1,700$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.19 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7255…67e0backed No | 72c | 1,689$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 1,660$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.67 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 1,604$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 1,563$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.36 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 79c | 1,543$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.86 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Yes | 52c | 1,542$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed No | 74c | 1,521$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 16c | 1,472$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked Yes | 16c | 1,450$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 42c | 1,394$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.56 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90dc…a442backed Yes | 17c | 1,353$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…7a65backed Yes | 15c | 1,333$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…96e8backed Yes | 15c | 1,309$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6034…b5fdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,279$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 35cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fa…f447backed Yes | 8c | 1,279$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7352…e156backed No | 78c | 1,269$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed No | 50c | 1,258$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.11 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d8…b8d9backed Yes | 41c | 1,231$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 1,225$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…147cbacked No | 71c | 1,222$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…cf1fbacked No | 79c | 1,214$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…5eafbacked Yes | 15c | 1,205$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 1,200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…6a60backed Yes | 52c | 1,195$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.63 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.36per pick | 51cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…7bf6backed No | 61c | 1,145$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 64c | 1,130$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.74 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed Yes | 15c | 1,115$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,111$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…c74abacked Yes | 46c | 1,100$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -65%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa2…4407backed No | 59c | 1,078$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 14c | 1,072$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.38 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 60c | 1,067$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.74 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…9aabbacked Yes | 28c | 1,058$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed No | 53c | 1,055$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.94 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.69 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 1,048$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 33c | 1,041$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.66 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked Yes | 15c | 1,036$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a4…554abacked Yes | 20c | 1,030$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked No | 78c | 1,020$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 50c | 1,011$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.06 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Yes | 42c | 1,001$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de5…c008backed No | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037d…161bbacked Yes | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?this page
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?No won
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?No won
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.