TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Canadiens vs. Sabres

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Canadiensof Canadiens, Sabres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,220,964
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,428,052

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,220,964 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 970 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5bec…b215backed Canadiens49c91,569$44,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,574.8516442.7%70 W · 94 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Sabres52c91,053$47,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,347.5528749.8%143 W · 144 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1925…4654backed Canadiens48c87,617$42,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,560.9411644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Sabres50c46,014$23,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,079.6810545.7%48 W · 57 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Canadiens51c40,868$21,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,868.51650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Sabres49c40,508$19,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,848.931,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Canadiens50c30,459$15,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,229.6120354.2%110 W · 93 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked Sabres51c30,000$15,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,3002365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Sabres48c29,830$14,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,319.5989636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Canadiens46c27,420$12,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,920.3718452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Canadiens49c20,408$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,408.163046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Sabres51c20,000$10,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,199.974358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Sabres1c19,975$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.799638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef2…ccfbbacked Sabres60c19,921$12,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,039.8212654.8%69 W · 57 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Sabres51c18,569$9,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,388.1730259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Sabres52c17,732$9,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,234.5841850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Canadiens48c15,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,799.9556649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Canadiens80c14,133$11,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,894.912433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Canadiens42c14,000$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,099.9625552.5%134 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Sabres50c13,427$6,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,713.518641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Canadiens47c13,269$6,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,017.1227044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Sabres51c12,184$6,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,217.541,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd10c…0645backed Canadiens51c12,160$6,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,007.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+151.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Canadiens32c11,975$3,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,192.577038.6%27 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Canadiens49c11,224$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,724.492236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Canadiens48c11,110$5,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,777.1833151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c0a…a9bebacked Sabres51c11,000$5,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6101947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Sabres50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0004949%24 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Sabres51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.8512950.4%65 W · 64 L+10.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Canadiens51c9,804$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,803.9218853.2%100 W · 88 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked Sabres52c9,615$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0002240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-30.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Canadiens50c9,500$4,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,724.971450%7 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07aa…deb1backed Canadiens48c9,222$4,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,795.558845.5%40 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Sabres1c8,847$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.91895.3%10 W · 179 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Canadiens50c8,544$4,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,298.874161%25 W · 16 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed Sabres50c8,287$4,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,143.5560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Sabres51c8,143$4,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,165.8861950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b1…f737backed Canadiens49c8,066$3,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,113.8328447.9%136 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Sabres49c7,721$3,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,816.0852050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Sabres52c7,692$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00032151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Sabres51c7,500$3,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,8251,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Sabres51c7,500$3,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,824.781741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc3…5827backed Sabres51c7,479$3,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,814.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Canadiens50c6,817$3,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,417.911950.4%60 W · 59 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd864…497ebacked Canadiens32c6,542$2,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,448.79540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1869…fe78backed Canadiens44c6,372$2,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,588.561127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Sabres48c6,114$2,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,934.648549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Canadiens54c6,062$3,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,816.1585464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Sabres52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Sabres46c5,873$2,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,714.443036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-37.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Canadiens51c5,336$2,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,625.461,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56f3…bf55backed Canadiens49c5,306$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,706.121747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed Sabres49c5,005$2,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,450.55742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Canadiens37c5,000$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,149.9210743%46 W · 61 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Sabres64c4,818$3,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,068.573174.2%23 W · 8 L+6.2wins+0.20per pick54cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Canadiens50c4,710$2,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,35520756.5%117 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Sabres52c4,668$2,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,414.956538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Sabres2c4,385$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7054418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Sabres51c4,248$2,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1758345.8%38 W · 45 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Sabres52c4,227$2,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,198.0864242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb10d…4ba0backed Sabres51c4,050$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Sabres48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92013445.5%61 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Sabres10c3,865$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.735644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Canadiens51c3,279$1,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,606.7855446.4%257 W · 297 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x528f…2101backed Canadiens45c3,258$1,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,802.7217353.8%93 W · 80 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35a6…cb8fbacked Sabres51c3,163$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,613.132429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-37.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Canadiens48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Sabres51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53011153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Sabres2c3,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5113333.1%44 W · 89 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Sabres51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.996841.2%28 W · 40 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Sabres53c2,999$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,575.0289249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Canadiens55c2,610$1,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.957157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa538…12c3backed Sabres66c2,600$1,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,713.981258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Sabres50c2,500$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2504555.6%25 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Sabres51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,27531848.7%155 W · 163 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Sabres64c2,237$1,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420.7314946.3%69 W · 80 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5248…aabbbacked Canadiens49c2,222$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.225147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e2e…b95fbacked Canadiens50c2,220$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.413100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+105.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37c4…3e8fbacked Canadiens33c2,166$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,446.051838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cef…fa91backed Sabres51c2,119$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfaae…4d2bbacked Canadiens49c2,106$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.92875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick52cpaid+56.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Canadiens50c2,080$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04039649.5%196 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc04f…bca2backed Sabres51c2,073$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.38666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Sabres51c2,050$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.453351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1da3…2f94backed Canadiens49c2,031$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.612653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Sabres51c2,030$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.2920951.7%108 W · 101 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c0b…bfc2backed Canadiens50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+32.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Sabres51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02091945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Sabres50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00025337.9%96 W · 157 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd299…a41dbacked Canadiens50c1,963$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Sabres51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00017750.8%90 W · 87 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked Canadiens76c1,949$1,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.2915057.3%86 W · 64 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+44.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Sabres52c1,926$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.523,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f0b…5577backed Sabres52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.4wins-0.21per pick45cpaid-46.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa6e6…f811backed Sabres51c1,918$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.38922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.34per pick56cpaid-62.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Canadiens49c1,870$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.336456.3%36 W · 28 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Sabres42c1,860$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.432,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7ccd…d915backed Canadiens49c1,746$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.591050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29cf…2d4cbacked Canadiens49c1,738$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.58450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed Sabres52c1,694$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick50cpaid-64.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.