NHL · resolved market

Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x032eb212067572c94c5a6ec7d2e10337adc366bfbed880c79f6af2c7797c6df3

Rebuilt 2 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: May 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $15,291
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $17,277

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,291 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NHL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa974…ef79backed Under	24c	7,249$1,767 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,767.27	107	43%46 W · 61 L	+5.8wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd864…497ebacked Under	27c	3,578$978 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$978.29	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Over	75c	2,333$1,750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$583.33	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	72c	2,159$1,554 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$604.42	2,112	42.9%907 W · 1,205 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over	76c	2,054$1,561 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$493.64	2,314	46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9762…73fbbacked Over	75c	1,731$1,298 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$432.76	38	73.7%28 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	72cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Over	76c	870.66$664 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.67	101	58.4%59 W · 42 L	+7.6wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Under	2c	767$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.54	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Over	75c	505$379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.25	99	48.5%48 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over	77c	466.47$359 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.29	287	49.8%143 W · 144 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b0…533bbacked Under	24c	416.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	76c	386.07$292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.83	172	48.3%83 W · 89 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Over	75c	308$231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77	145	49%71 W · 74 L	-5.4wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Over	73c	275$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.25	86	48.8%42 W · 44 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Under	13c	229$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.77	133	36.1%48 W · 85 L	-5.8wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb262…9b98backed Over	77c	129.87$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.87	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over	75c	112$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.7	236	65.7%155 W · 81 L	+15.5wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	823	53.1%437 W · 386 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Over	73c	80$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.6	76	42.1%32 W · 44 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under	24c	75$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	203	50.7%103 W · 100 L	+5.1wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over	73c	54$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.58	143	47.6%68 W · 75 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a9…5c31backed Under	26c	51.13$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.29	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6195…388abacked Over	77c	48$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.04	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7b5…8762backed Over	78c	43.53$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.58	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9abb…3f96backed Over	75c	30.21$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.55	95	62.1%59 W · 36 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	65cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over	74c	26.13$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.79	919	45.6%419 W · 500 L	-27.3wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5617…a1f2backed Over	75c	20.72$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.18	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5004…c07bbacked Over	77c	19.48$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.48	178	53.9%96 W · 82 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event