NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa29eef87188d33242bc298de5e79a21ccc4f741d16125ac70db699113fa02862
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd10c…0645backed Over | 80c | 7,800$6,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,240 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +151.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 19c | 7,388$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,009.12 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Under | 67c | 3,739$2,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.8 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 33c | 2,872$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.01 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 73c | 1,807$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.89 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…e1a1backed Under | 20c | 750$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 72c | 706.44$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.22 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 21c | 543.84$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.98 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 428.39$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.22 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…3527backed Over | 33c | 363.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…d94abacked Under | 17c | 341.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.07 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…6215backed Over | 33c | 280.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 15c | 280$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.35 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Under | 64c | 249.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 19c | 222.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.66 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Under | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…d0d4backed Under | 56c | 191$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 17c | 126.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.05 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c0…e88fbacked Over | 33c | 121$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 19c | 116.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.15 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 19c | 114.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 35c | 87.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Over | 42c | 81.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 19c | 75.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +8.9wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1833…cc31backed Under | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…e6d8backed Under | 30c | 56.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 42c | 51.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 40c | 40.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Over | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf500…958dbacked Under | 69c | 24.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Under | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 60c | 16.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Over | 65c | 15.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 9.5this page
- Canadiens vs. SabresCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Canadiens won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.