NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c679a0beeadad0107ee0ad326eb9d9c38237648c0cd1b85b2fe473c2da82340
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 46c | 1,390$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.15 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 53c | 720$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.8 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb61…2730backed Under | 55c | 600.47$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.21 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Under | 60c | 249.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 60c | 97.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 39c | 78.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Under | 61c | 78.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Over | 59c | 73.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0f…dd8dbacked Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Over | 44c | 71.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…416fbacked Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 40c | 51.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Under | 57c | 37.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 40c | 33.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 71c | 33.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…8870backed Under | 61c | 27.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Under | 57c | 26.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Over | 52c | 23.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 57c | 22.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 70c | 22.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…21a9backed Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf081…10d3backed Under | 75c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 10.5this page
- Canadiens vs. SabresCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Canadiens won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.