NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40101e8b7d3d8bb4bc529d5c4c2d086dcf1bbdcf22bfd2271fbc5bb83eaf5cc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 4c | 830$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 4c | 482$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 35c | 411.2$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.31 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Under | 32c | 406.65$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.66 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 68c | 357.6$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.11 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Over | 72c | 310.48$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.48 | 198 | 51.5%102 W · 96 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…20e0backed Over | 65c | 268.65$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Over | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…d0d4backed Under | 30c | 183$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Under | 40c | 142.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 64c | 121.44$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 25c | 113.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Over | 75c | 106.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85a…8cd8backed Under | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 68c | 64.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 237 | 54%128 W · 109 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0f…dd8dbacked Under | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 65c | 31.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 63c | 31.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b1…cf50backed Over | 71c | 20.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Over | 71c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 8.5this page
- Canadiens vs. SabresCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Canadiens won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.