Venezuela · resolved market
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79801a0feefbc4c35df8f35d33583eef8ff2bd7a514c619929ac62e23c2cf93d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $731,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $742,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $731,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 671 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 64,579$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 34c | 32,031$10,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,939.08 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 70c | 31,432$22,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,431.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a82…c113backed No | 38c | 19,263$7,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,298.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 12c | 14,480$1,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747.36 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86cd…504cbacked Yes | 72c | 12,748$9,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,615.11 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 63c | 11,984$7,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,376.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 53c | 11,635$6,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,135.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked Yes | 76c | 11,125$8,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,721.77 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2198…ac01backed No | 1c | 11,090$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 19c | 10,228$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.4 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 63c | 10,150$6,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,434.01 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 50cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa37…2fa8backed No | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 79c | 8,995$7,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,861.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 67c | 7,936$5,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,643.92 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4a…7c9fbacked No | 15c | 7,771$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed No | 65c | 7,700$5,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,008.84 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed No | 1c | 7,086$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 47c | 6,922$3,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,684.99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 48c | 6,216$2,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,236.52 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 43c | 5,736$2,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,259.03 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked No | 48c | 5,682$2,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,741.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 3c | 5,590$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.93 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a5…8ed9backed Yes | 5c | 5,372$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,121.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,645.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf65…178abacked No | 3c | 5,350$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes | 38c | 5,186$1,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,228.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c1…7decbacked Yes | 50c | 5,001$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,501.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed No | 28c | 5,000$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,417 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…c8d5backed No | 30c | 5,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed No | 51c | 4,484$2,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,291.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -72%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 1c | 4,393$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 54c | 4,285$2,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,331.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5d…8bb6backed No | 1c | 4,112$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…2a23backed No | 0c | 3,872$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 31c | 3,796$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.69 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 31c | 3,790$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 33c | 3,616$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,412.54 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed No | 1c | 3,369$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed No | 71c | 3,300$2,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,339.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985b…ce2cbacked No | 58c | 3,289$1,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,905.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 37c | 3,277$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83e1…6a54backed No | 80c | 3,157$2,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,522.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 30c | 3,080$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,144.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6989…b412backed No | 30c | 3,030$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.96 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 71c | 3,026$2,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.8 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…f78fbacked Yes | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…28a1backed No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 66c | 3,000$1,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1e…88b4backed No | 53c | 2,913$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda9…6ef4backed No | 4c | 2,776$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed No | 30c | 2,651$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 49c | 2,628$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.62 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce2…937cbacked No | 1c | 2,576$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceb3…108ebacked Yes | 35c | 2,481$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…1481backed No | 1c | 2,441$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes | 64c | 2,440$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7897…4239backed Yes | 41c | 2,394$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc68d…ec12backed Yes | 67c | 2,355$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -37%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…1b02backed Yes | 64c | 2,350$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x149d…8d63backed No | 1c | 2,315$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 63c | 2,257$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…d5dcbacked Yes | 60c | 2,211$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…69d1backed No | 1c | 2,192$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed Yes | 66c | 2,080$1,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 29c | 2,068$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.45 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed No | 32c | 2,040$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Yes | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked No | 7c | 1,993$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.63 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…2d8fbacked Yes | 65c | 1,966$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed No | 32c | 1,948$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 32c | 1,945$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -58%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed Yes | 50c | 1,907$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.27 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…9be5backed No | 1c | 1,875$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 18c | 1,810$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.73 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 70c | 1,765$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5e…bf98backed No | 31c | 1,750$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd388…0190backed No | 29c | 1,748$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…5e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,736$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +204.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 50c | 1,699$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.97 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked No | 67c | 1,693$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b7…5745backed No | 31c | 1,643$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eeb…bd84backed No | 71c | 1,602$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…59fabacked No | 25c | 1,593$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 63c | 1,574$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.15 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 30c | 1,550$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.62 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 64c | 1,550$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc838…7369backed No | 34c | 1,490$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 37c | 1,481$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.27 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 68c | 1,453$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.42 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 71c | 1,448$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…b576backed No | 70c | 1,440$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No | 70c | 1,434$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 58c | 1,426$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked No | 28c | 1,409$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 37c | 1,369$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981e…d368backed No | 62c | 1,348$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 52c | 1,336$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 73c | 1,316$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.85 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 69c | 1,303$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.69 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda3d…218ebacked No | 54c | 1,300$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?this page
- Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by December 31?No won
- Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.