TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$731,648
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$742,219

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $731,648 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 671 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c64,579$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24290%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No34c32,031$10,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,939.081435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes70c31,432$22,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,431.26650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a82…c113backed No38c19,263$7,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,298.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed No12c14,480$1,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.361070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+43.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86cd…504cbacked Yes72c12,748$9,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,615.115100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes63c11,984$7,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,376.231442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No53c11,635$6,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,135.741442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked Yes76c11,125$8,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,721.771330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-53.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2198…ac01backed No1c11,090$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No19c10,228$1,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,953.4330%0 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked No63c10,150$6,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,434.011978.9%15 W · 4 L+5.5wins+0.29per pick50cpaid+81.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xaa37…2fa8backed No1c10,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes79c8,995$7,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,861.23757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes67c7,936$5,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,643.924843.8%21 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4a…7c9fbacked No15c7,771$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed No65c7,700$5,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,008.841833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed No1c7,086$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Yes47c6,922$3,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,684.991747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes48c6,216$2,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,236.521735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick26cpaid-30%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes43c5,736$2,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,259.032650%13 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked No48c5,682$2,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,741.31560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+14.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No3c5,590$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.931546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x31a5…8ed9backed Yes5c5,372$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,121.692100%2 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,645.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf65…178abacked No3c5,350$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes38c5,186$1,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,228.81475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+33.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x02c1…7decbacked Yes50c5,001$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,501.122100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed No28c5,000$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4172030%6 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3f3…c8d5backed No30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed No51c4,484$2,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,291.53616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-72%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked No1c4,393$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.961735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-38.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No54c4,285$2,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,331.17742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d5d…8bb6backed No1c4,112$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3618…2a23backed No0c3,872$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No31c3,796$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.694316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fb1…fb84backed No31c3,790$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.89250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes33c3,616$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,412.542619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff77…4b76backed No1c3,369$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.23728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed No71c3,300$2,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x985b…ce2cbacked No58c3,289$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,905.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb1b…efb5backed No37c3,277$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.3630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83e1…6a54backed No80c3,157$2,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,522.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed Yes30c3,080$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,144.881241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6989…b412backed No30c3,030$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.961850%9 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes71c3,026$2,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.83828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3790…f78fbacked Yes30c3,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,100250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44b3…28a1backed No1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes66c3,000$1,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.991145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc1e…88b4backed No53c2,913$1,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfda9…6ef4backed No4c2,776$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e55…e3e2backed No30c2,651$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+25.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes49c2,628$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.622450%12 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ce2…937cbacked No1c2,576$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xceb3…108ebacked Yes35c2,481$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,607.87333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed No1c2,441$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes64c2,440$1,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.271338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick24cpaid-18.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7897…4239backed Yes41c2,394$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,411.82475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc68d…ec12backed Yes67c2,355$1,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.61728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid-37%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc33d…1b02backed Yes64c2,350$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x149d…8d63backed No1c2,315$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes63c2,257$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.74540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b37…d5dcbacked Yes60c2,211$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3487…69d1backed No1c2,192$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed Yes66c2,080$1,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.39450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+61.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes29c2,068$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.452245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+76.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8a7…46c4backed No32c2,040$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.91742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Yes74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a4…527cbacked No7c1,993$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.632729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe166…2d8fbacked Yes65c1,966$1,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffe…4071backed No32c1,948$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-59.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No32c1,945$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.06633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-58%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb766…1d83backed Yes50c1,907$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.275100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1631…9be5backed No1c1,875$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No18c1,810$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.731735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes70c1,765$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.34475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+34.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e5e…bf98backed No31c1,750$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.92520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd388…0190backed No29c1,748$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eae…5e6dbacked Yes33c1,736$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+204.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No50c1,699$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.971637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-42.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked No67c1,693$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid+20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b7…5745backed No31c1,643$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eeb…bd84backed No71c1,602$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4da6…59fabacked No25c1,593$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes63c1,574$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.154348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed No30c1,550$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.622835.7%10 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No64c1,550$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc838…7369backed No34c1,490$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bea…f95abacked Yes37c1,481$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.272020%4 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes68c1,453$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.42988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick57cpaid+68.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes71c1,448$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-48.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91c7…b576backed No70c1,440$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.391040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No70c1,434$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+47%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81d1…4e30backed Yes58c1,426$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.93757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49f7…046bbacked No28c1,409$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No37c1,369$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.81560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x981e…d368backed No62c1,348$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes52c1,336$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.6683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+54.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes73c1,316$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.852941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid-8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes69c1,303$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.691866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+43.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda3d…218ebacked No54c1,300$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.