Venezuela · resolved market
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x335c56245d1426f7d2d7d87b59eb8e529a0af4cb6c3cb0574ff138a1ca4776ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbad…2429backed Yes | 2c | 2,087$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 3c | 1,591$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,119$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…1737backed Yes | 4c | 959.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 4c | 778.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 4c | 669.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 2c | 616.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…333dbacked Yes | 4c | 419.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 342.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d9…00ecbacked Yes | 6c | 316.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacfd…be02backed Yes | 6c | 243.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 12c | 166.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 9c | 162.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 80.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by December 31?this page
- Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?Yes won
- Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.