TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$982,231
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$933,293

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $982,231 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 331 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c72,474$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.4490%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0acc…9dc1backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04c2…db08backed No1c43,552$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5e…de2fbacked No2c28,025$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4b3…af09backed No3c27,128$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0a4…af6bbacked No1c26,984$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No24c13,010$3,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,139.271435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2198…ac01backed No2c12,966$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e1…6a54backed No28c12,575$3,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,495.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf25b…173ebacked No0c12,160$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1461…c073backed No0c11,836$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd280…0c6cbacked No2c10,509$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed No16c10,219$1,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,670.562835.7%10 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3680…a456backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39a7…3fc0backed No1c9,681$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13b4…bd21backed No1c8,881$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b9…09d1backed No1c8,841$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ae3…fa06backed No0c8,803$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f00…b3f5backed No1c8,566$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed No2c7,930$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6634…a779backed No2c7,922$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffe…4071backed No29c7,622$2,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,181.43425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-59.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1623…8f6abacked No0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes64c7,407$4,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,683.452650%13 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9460…8548backed No1c7,182$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdebb…787ebacked No1c7,066$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe939…78f5backed No1c6,946$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9797…4e3dbacked No3c6,766$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91e5…ff19backed No1c6,325$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+41.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad89…b5a2backed No1c6,256$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa87…2716backed No1c5,830$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick22cpaid+114.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfda9…6ef4backed No3c5,580$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed No39c5,500$2,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,155742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c93…2acdbacked No0c5,269$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa75…81f2backed No19c5,162$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e22…94d4backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44b3…28a1backed No1c5,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No1c5,000$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+46.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes63c4,938$3,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.3560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34b7…f7c2backed No2c4,879$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc024…090fbacked No1c4,841$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2082…e207backed No2c4,484$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9175…74f4backed No1c4,223$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed No1c4,161$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.47110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes77c4,000$3,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick73cpaid-56.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadcf…0e2fbacked No1c3,904$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed No26c3,832$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.011442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dda…2b8bbacked No1c3,716$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4ae…8370backed No14c3,561$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed No41c3,500$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.992030%6 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed No1c3,428$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.08616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-66.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0c3…4f9abacked No1c3,403$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0e4…019cbacked No1c3,343$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18b2…94c8backed No2c3,235$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1385…3f78backed No2c3,128$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed No1c3,079$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86cd…504cbacked Yes78c3,068$2,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.515100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xceb3…108ebacked No2c2,957$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.31333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8a2…477cbacked No2c2,834$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86a3…9f40backed No2c2,800$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d5d…8bb6backed No1c2,781$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc951…ba0abacked No2c2,698$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5763…1c22backed No28c2,686$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+41.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf4…b08dbacked No9c2,586$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7897…4239backed Yes71c2,582$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.08475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01f3…0496backed No0c2,578$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x267b…2256backed No1c2,563$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb730…2b61backed No2c2,550$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe53…df5cbacked No2c2,463$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes73c2,456$1,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.71070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+43.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc898…1391backed No4c2,389$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-25.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No21c2,378$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.673917.9%7 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24bb…34f7backed No1c2,370$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes72c2,300$1,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.992941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid-8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes68c2,255$1,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.892450%12 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes59c2,201$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.971735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick26cpaid-30%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fb3…1f5bbacked No1c2,200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b96…5fbdbacked No2c2,175$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No2c2,158$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.14633.2%2 W · 61 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd86…c496backed No1c2,134$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes64c2,104$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.28812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-80.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde70…6307backed No1c2,103$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked No48c2,064$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-46.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked No1c2,062$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No44c2,039$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-55.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x291e…4b6abacked No1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No2c2,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.280%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc3b…2bf1backed No1c2,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f1b…6084backed No1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69fd…b2f0backed No1c2,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Yes70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe51e…967abacked No36c1,970$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f35…caf6backed No2c1,933$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa14f…098bbacked No1c1,927$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb581…b496backed No5c1,927$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1032548%12 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1631…9be5backed No2c1,889$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb8…753bbacked No2c1,889$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes59c1,835$1,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.231338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick24cpaid-18.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc156…8360backed No27c1,821$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes77c1,762$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.234348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.