TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0ccf…34e6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NHL, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 54 out of 100; worst Movies at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2025, EDT3571.4%25 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sharks vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$35
Bruins vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.7
Kraken vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.8
Penguins vs. Starsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT+126%+$20.6
Blackhawks vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$19.8
Hurricanes vs. Red Wingsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.2
Predators vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT+37%+$18.9
Capitals vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$23.1
Predators vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$20.4
Wild vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$73.39
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$19.2
Devils vs. Blackhawksbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$25.6
Penguins vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$45
Sabres vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$118.4
Blackhawks vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT+37%+$101.79
Flyers vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT+37%+$101.52
Hurricanes vs. Sharksbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$16.8
Ducks vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$64.8
Flyers vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$84.1
Ducks vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$30.4
Oilers vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.6
Predators vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$25.6
Panthers vs. Canadiensbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
Capitals vs. Sharksbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$36.4
Devils vs. Penguinsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.4
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2025, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$115
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$365.2
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+81.5%+$101.22
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$259.19
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$188.3
US-EU trade agreement by July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$665Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+41.2%+$273.73
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$234.04
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+386.4%+$474.47
Trump executive order ending Department of Education by Thursday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$346Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$345.6
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$51
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$29.84
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$303.4
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$157
Israel strikes Yemen by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$544Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+101.9%+$554.54
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,304Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+74.2%+$967.86
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$838Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$279.59
Iran strike on Israel by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.3
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+40.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-51.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$8.7
Yoon in jail before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$308.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$79
Mavericks vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$12
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Reds vs. Metsbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$138.73
Royals vs. Marlinsbacked Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.1
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'BRAT' win Album of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$12.93
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.