TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$658,028
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$536,099

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $658,028 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 299 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes3c44,139$1,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.1332814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No69c34,832$23,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,907.9217751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes30c34,640$10,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,412.61711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-58.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5115…b61dbacked Yes12c27,727$3,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,235.04128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-89.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53a4…4447backed Yes38c27,386$10,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,370.3412451.6%64 W · 60 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdaad…69ccbacked No80c19,248$15,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,875.871957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe21e…0f1fbacked Yes30c16,298$4,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,853.68728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-40.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ae…d3c7backed Yes19c16,090$3,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,053.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1032…77f1backed Yes36c15,597$5,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,588.21822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes7c14,562$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.83534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes23c12,786$2,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,882.293716.2%6 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes33c10,200$3,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,324.6626041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x388f…4083backed Yes9c10,030$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.55911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-77%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f8…3186backed Yes24c10,000$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,390.32333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+72.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes17c10,000$1,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,660.816624.1%40 W · 126 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No64c9,333$5,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,384.677252.8%38 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe01a…d4e9backed Yes61c9,258$5,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,687.91425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-66.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ebf…ae75backed Yes43c9,030$3,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,901.32540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes29c8,579$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.93423.5%8 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e4c…9f2bbacked Yes16c7,763$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.9728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes21c7,711$1,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,602.1218719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcefc…a993backed Yes37c7,353$2,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,748.352556%14 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69a1…85f0backed Yes33c7,153$2,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,348.721030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3837…fbb3backed Yes7c7,041$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes49c6,454$3,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,189.7416350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes32c6,444$2,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,032.636426.6%17 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf20e…d622backed Yes29c6,403$1,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,851.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90d2…a6b3backed Yes18c5,508$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.8812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No72c5,288$3,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,461.191435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes20c5,189$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.382020%4 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No60c5,050$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.211656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes28c4,859$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.362516%4 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x543f…9dafbacked Yes6c4,805$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-58.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes15c4,000$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6171442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes14c3,791$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.5610331.1%32 W · 71 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c5…b081backed Yes35c3,700$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,286.69441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes44c3,500$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.6115059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes1c3,170$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.186222.6%14 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes21c2,792$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-41.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes31c2,791$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.221711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-74.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No65c2,704$1,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.271513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-81.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes21c2,564$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5492416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-62.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes10c2,500$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes42c2,480$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.23622.2%8 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No78c2,398$1,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.523043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x116f…9210backed Yes32c2,369$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.8310123.8%24 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ccf…34e6backed Yes9c2,346$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No39c2,274$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,394.525745.6%26 W · 31 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+58.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No65c2,083$1,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.431080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Yes19c2,012$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.532133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-45.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e7…c5debacked Yes1c2,010$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2f9…eb40backed Yes21c1,887$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.61250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes18c1,872$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.12817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No69c1,866$1,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.37683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+36.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x288a…4275backed Yes18c1,800$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-30%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2482…9475backed Yes28c1,776$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-44.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c43…626dbacked Yes26c1,731$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.45616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-57.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ca…c807backed Yes31c1,634$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e0e…fdb4backed Yes26c1,584$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.66650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes52c1,521$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.811921.1%4 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-61.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x888d…2df3backed Yes62c1,458$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.86425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed95…b1e6backed Yes34c1,441$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.953225%8 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes59c1,434$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.436732.8%22 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes18c1,420$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250644.7%3 W · 61 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-74.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x419b…6735backed Yes27c1,416$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Yes24c1,390$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.143023.3%7 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-39.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x32ee…3d48backed Yes20c1,362$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.07812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-80.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d33…5a2ebacked Yes3c1,280$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.16837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes12c1,236$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.418930.3%27 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed Yes33c1,229$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4071533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-33%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x748f…f6e5backed No61c1,158$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.19580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd268…105dbacked Yes42c1,060$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.51136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8bc…2eabbacked Yes9c1,050$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.81130%0 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c1,046$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.9448414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb581…fa4ebacked Yes17c1,030$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4714…c177backed Yes4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes28c999.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-71.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c1e…cbbbbacked Yes20c968.71$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba9…1c24backed Yes5c952.23$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+83.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27a8…4902backed Yes22c927.15$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2711…cd8bbacked Yes47c924.34$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-24.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x01a9…8a6abacked Yes11c905.81$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Yes27c904.54$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x057d…6eddbacked Yes42c892.97$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.111414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick25cpaid+57.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x978d…5eddbacked Yes33c877$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.533426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-48.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed No75c876$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2194553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe4…dbe2backed Yes16c866.32$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ec…b5fcbacked No63c842.34$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.53742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f2…16fbbacked Yes26c840.91$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes42c830.01$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.153941%16 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a6…321abacked Yes23c820$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.52020%4 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e0…1dbabacked Yes9c803.98$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-54%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17d8…e57abacked Yes63c799.04$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a07…05c1backed Yes30c742.61$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.391030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc230…6192backed No66c728.25$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.3757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb10…0d34backed Yes18c723.26$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6b…f553backed Yes30c719$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.26250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb65…7d39backed Yes15c707.13$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes20c706.84$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.444420.5%9 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f8…94f0backed Yes57c705.77$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.3450%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.