Movies · resolved market
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $108-116m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49b2d631dd35aa8dca1b781709c6855e68cd276cc8c2885affc1d2cc2f8dffaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $320,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $240,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $320,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 30,922$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.2 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 2c | 12,680$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 1c | 11,689$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.44 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 2c | 11,000$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.77 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 7c | 10,647$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.67 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f4…a931backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…21b5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6896backed Yes | 19c | 9,707$1,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,891.91 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes | 3c | 9,665$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.06 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…cd51backed Yes | 3c | 7,723$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 23c | 6,024$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.99 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 5,783$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…9133backed Yes | 12c | 4,319$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed Yes | 1c | 3,882$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 0c | 3,069$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Yes | 1c | 2,677$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…abbabacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,367$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.83 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 20c | 2,073$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.87 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,050$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 1c | 1,723$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 3c | 1,665$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 2c | 1,294$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,278$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 19c | 1,060$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.54 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 5c | 1,050$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 1,037$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.37 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…0f1fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,012$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb803…b62bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f9…55f0backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 2c | 990.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 18c | 821.67$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.99 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4f…01eabacked Yes | 2c | 783.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed Yes | 2c | 684.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 584.74$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…d582backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 22c | 300$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 18c | 286.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebf…ae75backed Yes | 22c | 224.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 9c | 222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 17c | 207.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 23c | 157$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 80c | 153.44$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 141.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 77c | 140.16$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 124$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…5e10backed Yes | 12c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 17c | 101$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a4…bdf5backed Yes | 21c | 94.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…ba50backed No | 79c | 93.64$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 23c | 85.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 22c | 70.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8b…6fc5backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $108-116m?this page
- Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $100-108m?No won
- Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m?No won
- Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $100m?No won
- Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.