Movies · resolved market
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c104fa7d363fcee6f3eb016ba1842905f0bdbeded6d790390bf4307bf4fb142
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $820,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $845,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $820,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 359 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 60c | 32,615$19,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,942.38 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6896backed No | 46c | 30,980$14,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,230.43 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 61c | 21,507$13,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,336.63 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 28c | 20,946$5,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,867.12 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked Yes | 76c | 18,603$14,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,492.23 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 67c | 18,067$12,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,974.51 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 68c | 18,000$12,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,788.82 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 54c | 16,864$9,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,790.64 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 67c | 15,585$10,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,172.89 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 56c | 14,703$8,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,424.8 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked No | 28c | 13,625$3,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,854.09 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…9475backed Yes | 60c | 13,383$8,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,382.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5115…b61dbacked No | 20c | 12,694$2,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,567.71 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 33c | 11,541$3,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,816.38 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 54c | 11,534$6,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,346.76 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked No | 32c | 8,657$2,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,768.65 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 69c | 8,146$5,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,527.35 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe01a…d4e9backed No | 62c | 5,837$3,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,605.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 48c | 5,304$2,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,746.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 74c | 5,251$3,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.81 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 56c | 5,205$2,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,905.51 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 45c | 5,093$2,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,812.5 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20e…d622backed Yes | 63c | 4,874$3,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,779.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 80c | 4,648$3,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcefc…a993backed Yes | 68c | 4,182$2,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,342.11 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 4,106$2,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,238.21 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d2…a6b3backed No | 18c | 3,866$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebf…ae75backed Yes | 56c | 3,862$2,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 9c | 3,625$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.46 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed No | 21c | 3,563$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.9 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 46c | 3,537$1,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,898.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…9b2ebacked No | 34c | 3,428$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed Yes | 55c | 3,213$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +93%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 22c | 3,037$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.05 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 69c | 3,007$2,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 35c | 2,984$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.23 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 16c | 2,907$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.05 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 17c | 2,866$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.29 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fa…0a56backed Yes | 76c | 2,717$2,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 43c | 2,600$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,471.79 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 52c | 2,388$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230.98 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…2df3backed Yes | 43c | 2,319$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 44c | 2,223$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.8 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes | 54c | 2,213$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 61c | 2,169$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.48 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 44c | 2,157$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.2 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e7…c5debacked No | 2c | 2,137$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 59c | 2,067$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.32 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…c807backed Yes | 49c | 2,027$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 71c | 2,021$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.92 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed56…f524backed No | 1c | 1,981$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked No | 43c | 1,972$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.44 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 57c | 1,961$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.4 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 61c | 1,840$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.24 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…6df2backed Yes | 67c | 1,788$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.34 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0e…fdb4backed Yes | 45c | 1,730$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Yes | 45c | 1,700$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd268…105dbacked Yes | 61c | 1,586$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.07 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 68c | 1,515$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.81 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 48c | 1,511$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.17 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked No | 13c | 1,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…3d48backed No | 8c | 1,469$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked Yes | 34c | 1,415$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.5 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 31c | 1,400$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 50c | 1,399$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.8 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 67c | 1,385$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.84 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 41c | 1,371$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.66 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed Yes | 76c | 1,336$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…c47fbacked Yes | 41c | 1,309$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.39 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Yes | 78c | 1,298$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.77 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 52c | 1,277$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 43c | 1,234$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.53 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 62c | 1,210$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.44 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a1…85f0backed Yes | 64c | 1,205$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,150$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.5 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 19c | 1,100$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 1,066$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.8 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27a8…4902backed Yes | 47c | 1,031$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.79 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5163…8a8ebacked Yes | 52c | 1,015$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a6…cf2fbacked Yes | 49c | 1,004$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes | 64c | 1,000$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.13 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141e…8c87backed Yes | 54c | 979.87$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 64c | 975.26$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.17 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6735backed Yes | 42c | 962.24$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4f…01eabacked Yes | 56c | 942.65$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…3deabacked Yes | 51c | 920.38$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.33 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 54c | 905.72$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…f1ffbacked Yes | 38c | 897.83$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.63 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed No | 45c | 854.96$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.74 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 852.2$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.37 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 54c | 831.44$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.5 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 28c | 818.46$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388f…4083backed No | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 50c | 799.99$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365e…0bfcbacked No | 8c | 786.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -81%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…d56fbacked Yes | 50c | 786.2$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 66c | 760.55$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.59 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…0f1fbacked Yes | 52c | 758.6$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 54c | 748.93$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m?this page
- Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $100-108m?No won
- Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $108-116m?No won
- Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m?No won
- Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $100m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.