TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x90d2…a6b3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Commodities, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$45.05
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$41.21
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.92
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+32.6%+$32.05
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,539Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,538.85
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+44.5%+$166.51
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+37.9%+$189.39
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$170.29
Israel x Turkey military clash in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.63
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$621Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$620.85
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$137.67
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-89.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$20.42
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$113.88
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$389.72
Will LDP hold the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.76
Will LDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$991Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$990.6
Will DPP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.05
Will JCP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.53
Will CDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$949Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$949.27
Will DIY win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.01
Will JIP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.58
Will Komeito win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.83
Will Reiwa Shinsengumi win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.5
Yoon in jail before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$136.19
All 13 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+134%+$120.62
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10,936Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+91.3%+$9,979.3
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+70.6%+$7.77
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+25%+$2.5
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,892Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+54.1%+$1,565.77
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+45.1%+$22.54
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+25.4%+$25.36
Will Gold close between $4500 and $4600 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$160
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$91.3
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+51.5%+$68
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$794Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$793.62
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$632Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+28.1%+$177.62
US government shutdown by October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$47.14
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.91
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.81
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+46.2%+$56.91
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$5.76
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$486Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+230.7%+$1,121.78
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$208.43
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$620Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$619.97
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$39.16
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,149Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,149.29
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $135-145m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.53
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$686Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$686.28
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$965Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$964.8
All 8 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Oct 14, 2025, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-81.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 31, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+960.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+960.4%+$528.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$71.9
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.