Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ce0979c4c40ae2cb252bd8dff9c85e3a37d009e23ec889fc09e365d54756118

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 14, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $271,316
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $172,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $271,316 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	70,462$588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$587.79	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	19,491$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.08	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	12,139$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.14	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce0…9a61backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	3,644$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.96	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	3c	3,573$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.37	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	7c	3,100$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.5	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	5c	3,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	6c	2,575$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.7	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	6c	2,266$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.5	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	2c	1,500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	6c	1,480$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.91	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	3c	1,457$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.03	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,081$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.01	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90d2…a6b3backed Yes	13c	959.1$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-81.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	3c	888.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.69	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	12c	803.45$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	2c	711.49$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	11c	615.29$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	6c	589$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.56	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	11c	567.45$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.42	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	11c	550$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.5	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	3c	515.64$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	6c	499.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	3c	425.08$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.42	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	9c	400.04$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.85	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bce…c476backed Yes	12c	386.34$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.69	78	23.1%18 W · 60 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	11c	359.76$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	12c	319.65$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.37	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	281.2$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.42	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2105…c514backed Yes	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-43%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	11c	227.27$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd25d…6088backed Yes	10c	200.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…5490backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes	10c	198.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x340a…cfa2backed Yes	12c	160.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe30e…8edfbacked Yes	13c	154.47$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d9…797cbacked Yes	10c	147.42$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	10c	123.21$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8859…43d4backed Yes	13c	115.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c88…6871backed Yes	12c	110.17$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.22	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	12c	101$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc440…2e0ebacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3a45…fcf6backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5638…5e50backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x754f…4e38backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	13c	80$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf89d…63a2backed Yes	13c	80$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event