Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55a689d00cf24517eb7a71ced151f99774abda8c35185458f5cfaf27f1355f17

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 13, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $210,120
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $77,944

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,120 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	25,000$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.5	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	20,000$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf8…bfd6backed Yes	0c	11,460$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-68.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	5c	10,000$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.25	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	7,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	6,776$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.44	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	1c	6,242$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes	0c	5,834$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.17	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbed…c997backed Yes	1c	5,364$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.72	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+3.3wins	+0.10per pick	11cpaid	+78.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	4,671$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.62	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c24…9809backed Yes	0c	3,647$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	3,123$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.69	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	3c	3,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	2,786$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.77	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	0c	2,750$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	2c	2,557$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.69	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	2c	2,500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	2c	2,184$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.37	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	3c	2,140$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.44	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	1c	2,116$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	1,455$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.46	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	1,454$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.85	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	1c	1,415$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.57	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9dc…dcc1backed Yes	1c	1,148$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe995…e7d1backed Yes	3c	1,131$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes	2c	1,123$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked Yes	2c	1,100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	1c	1,070$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.04	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b6f…1be7backed Yes	7c	1,000$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	999.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	3c	960.77$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.55	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	5c	817.54$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d8f…a480backed Yes	1c	800$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	750$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.35	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	4c	658.48$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.93	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f3…f3a5backed Yes	2c	625$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.47	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-70.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdab4…5dbabacked Yes	2c	603.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeabf…bb11backed Yes	4c	505$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x538e…e285backed Yes	3c	500.34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc8d…bd58backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3680…fe94backed Yes	4c	500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a9…8d0abacked Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd25d…6088backed Yes	3c	398.72$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5609…33f4backed Yes	5c	209.45$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	5c	201.13$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event