TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$238,371
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$192,446

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,371 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes1c20,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200858.2%7 W · 78 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes26c13,857$3,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,555.9466222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x065b…ca89backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed No59c5,495$3,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,245.3422119.9%44 W · 177 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed Yes20c4,385$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.642437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+30.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes34c3,948$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.0357222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes18c3,920$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.4628534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes35c3,807$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.8729331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes38c3,254$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.9462713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes22c3,075$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.1145715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes51c3,015$1,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,531.42222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes27c2,774$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.4123914.2%34 W · 205 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes24c2,662$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.6530310.9%33 W · 270 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes43c2,326$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes34c2,319$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.032785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes27c2,248$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.845325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c2,233$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.082,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked Yes47c2,128$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.141010%1 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-83.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes23c1,911$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.9354122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No50c1,858$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.7623464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes18c1,800$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32845911.3%52 W · 407 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked No65c1,795$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.5317322.5%39 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes24c1,726$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.39977.2%7 W · 90 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-68.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2230…a66cbacked Yes23c1,719$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.17666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes12c1,716$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.81,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes25c1,522$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.8653817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes9c1,500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.545249.9%52 W · 472 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b1f…9221backed Yes70c1,467$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No79c1,447$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.2320973.2%153 W · 56 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes2c1,400$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301347.5%10 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes41c1,338$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.572748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes9c1,300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11484616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No60c1,258$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.52540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes55c1,051$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5756119.7%12 W · 49 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-55.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No70c1,025$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.151275%9 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes18c1,003$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.9523217.7%41 W · 191 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed No68c998.68$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.1268615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes23c977$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.7128113.5%38 W · 243 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes12c904.63$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11238811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes19c850.47$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.28339.1%3 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x304d…07f1backed No77c850.16$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.123342.4%14 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc011…0a62backed Yes42c844.37$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.6410543.8%46 W · 59 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b87…a20abacked Yes50c783.58$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.192924.1%7 W · 22 L-4.7wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe995…e7d1backed Yes16c762.7$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No62c757.61$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.6818163%114 W · 67 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes30c690$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.788610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8c4e…3313backed Yes52c674.7$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d50…8eebbacked No41c625.83$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.472445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed No59c617.72$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.9241017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x699b…fb32backed Yes25c590.91$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8498…d219backed Yes29c579.18$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.14424.8%2 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-75.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes36c570.95$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.763619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-50.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c85…3833backed Yes65c538.47$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.36250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes9c505$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7465623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes44c500.05$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22241718%75 W · 342 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfdc…4d66backed No62c489.39$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdab4…5dbabacked Yes25c489.06$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.422015%3 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes22c465.87$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014524.4%11 W · 34 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-57.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes30c460.11$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.682097.7%16 W · 193 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa492…7b86backed Yes44c452.14$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked Yes15c450$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.55018%9 W · 41 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-38.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes25c448.21$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1520717.4%36 W · 171 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes25c441.23$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5624618.7%46 W · 200 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x050c…d7cebacked No59c416$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.32933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-43.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38d1…923ebacked Yes53c409.78$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes34c400.36$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.253414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7924…a7b0backed Yes42c400$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+68.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf89d…63a2backed Yes35c392.15$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.634022.5%9 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbe5…18d8backed Yes15c382.39$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.332133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cfb…24a8backed Yes68c367.8$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e36…aa76backed Yes68c329$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9cf…7df7backed Yes45c323.4$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.331225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes13c316.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4042110%42 W · 379 L+1.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2713818.8%26 W · 112 L-0.3wins0.00per pick19cpaid-42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes11c296.77$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.231816.7%3 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+236.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed No65c295$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.45633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes39c293.02$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2411221.4%24 W · 88 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes13c292.55$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0329610.5%31 W · 265 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b2…15b5backed Yes41c292.45$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-56%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes25c289$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.776417.2%11 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes35c284.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005813.8%8 W · 50 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-64.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe367…47d4backed No43c273$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d21…d7cdbacked Yes40c268.87$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4586…158cbacked No76c262.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.973473.5%25 W · 9 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5377…e6dabacked Yes23c260.87$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x509d…0f6ebacked Yes39c260$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes39c259.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003912.8%5 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes34c257.56$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.178811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes26c255.98$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7399619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fa5…4f1abacked Yes67c254.62$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.761850%9 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5ed…6dbabacked No70c250$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.28per pick44cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ae3…bc70backed Yes58c249.99$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.24425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No58c241.69$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2643933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked No67c241.44$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.628206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51da…1076backed Yes43c234.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006129.5%18 W · 43 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-43.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ade…c43abacked Yes40c231.27$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.58728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5801…1c21backed Yes29c202.67$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35d1…4defbacked Yes31c200.42$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb0…3b23backed Yes26c200.31$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5609…33f4backed Yes28c200.2$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571520%3 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.