Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb50776065d8720f9ff72aa4bf899f77989c5831023df363efbf81abfc69270bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $238,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cde…b42abacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 85 | 8.2%7 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 26c | 13,857$3,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,555.94 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x065b…ca89backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed No | 59c | 5,495$3,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,245.34 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed Yes | 20c | 4,385$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.64 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 34c | 3,948$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.03 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 18c | 3,920$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.46 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 35c | 3,807$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.87 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 38c | 3,254$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.94 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 22c | 3,075$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.11 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…f3afbacked Yes | 51c | 3,015$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531.4 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 27c | 2,774$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.41 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 24c | 2,662$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.65 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 43c | 2,326$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 34c | 2,319$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.03 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 27c | 2,248$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.84 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 2,233$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.08 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bd…b05abacked Yes | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.14 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 23c | 1,911$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.93 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 50c | 1,858$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.76 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 18c | 1,800$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…f0cfbacked No | 65c | 1,795$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.53 | 173 | 22.5%39 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 24c | 1,726$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.39 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,719$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 12c | 1,716$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.8 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 25c | 1,522$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.86 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 9c | 1,500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.54 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1f…9221backed Yes | 70c | 1,467$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 79c | 1,447$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.23 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 41c | 1,338$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.57 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 9c | 1,300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 60c | 1,258$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26db…7abcbacked Yes | 55c | 1,051$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 70c | 1,025$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.15 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 18c | 1,003$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.95 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed No | 68c | 998.68$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.12 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 23c | 977$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.71 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 12c | 904.63$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 19c | 850.47$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.28 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304d…07f1backed No | 77c | 850.16$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed Yes | 42c | 844.37$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.64 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…a20abacked Yes | 50c | 783.58$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.19 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe995…e7d1backed Yes | 16c | 762.7$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 62c | 757.61$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.68 | 181 | 63%114 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 30c | 690$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.7 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…3313backed Yes | 52c | 674.7$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d50…8eebbacked No | 41c | 625.83$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.47 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 59c | 617.72$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.92 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…fb32backed Yes | 25c | 590.91$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8498…d219backed Yes | 29c | 579.18$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.14 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes | 36c | 570.95$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.76 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c85…3833backed Yes | 65c | 538.47$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 9c | 505$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 44c | 500.05$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdc…4d66backed No | 62c | 489.39$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab4…5dbabacked Yes | 25c | 489.06$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.42 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…f21ebacked Yes | 22c | 465.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 30c | 460.11$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.68 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…7b86backed Yes | 44c | 452.14$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…748dbacked Yes | 15c | 450$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 25c | 448.21$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.15 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 25c | 441.23$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.56 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x050c…d7cebacked No | 59c | 416$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d1…923ebacked Yes | 53c | 409.78$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 34c | 400.36$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.25 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7924…a7b0backed Yes | 42c | 400$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf89d…63a2backed Yes | 35c | 392.15$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.63 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe5…18d8backed Yes | 15c | 382.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfb…24a8backed Yes | 68c | 367.8$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e36…aa76backed Yes | 68c | 329$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cf…7df7backed Yes | 45c | 323.4$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.33 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 13c | 316.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 11c | 296.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +236.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 65c | 295$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes | 39c | 293.02$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.24 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 13c | 292.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 296 | 10.5%31 W · 265 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…15b5backed Yes | 41c | 292.45$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…4615backed Yes | 25c | 289$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes | 35c | 284.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…47d4backed No | 43c | 273$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…d7cdbacked Yes | 40c | 268.87$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4586…158cbacked No | 76c | 262.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.97 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5377…e6dabacked Yes | 23c | 260.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0f6ebacked Yes | 39c | 260$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes | 39c | 259.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 34c | 257.56$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 26c | 255.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa5…4f1abacked Yes | 67c | 254.62$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.76 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ed…6dbabacked No | 70c | 250$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…bc70backed Yes | 58c | 249.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 58c | 241.69$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.26 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked No | 67c | 241.44$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.62 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…1076backed Yes | 43c | 234.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ade…c43abacked Yes | 40c | 231.27$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5801…1c21backed Yes | 29c | 202.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…4defbacked Yes | 31c | 200.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb0…3b23backed Yes | 26c | 200.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5609…33f4backed Yes | 28c | 200.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.