Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6e210af87fe463e3cb4f0f0e5ad806563bf9cd78e2c2ae6fe3344c0d7e64921

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 14, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $291,354
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $151,742

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $291,354 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	127,779$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$457.61	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	14,467$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.67	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90c3…a732backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38ff…9332backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd86a…4659backed Yes	0c	9,119$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,725$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.19	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	4c	3,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	3c	2,750$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.5	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	3c	2,743$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.83	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	2,585$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.38	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	2c	2,500$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	2c	2,500$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	3c	2,000$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	1,308$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.33	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	3c	1,159$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	2c	999.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x215d…ba6dbacked Yes	6c	801.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	728.9$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	659.92$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.17	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	8c	655.71$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.2	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2105…c514backed Yes	4c	499.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-43%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf469…7aa9backed Yes	5c	330.44$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-52%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb166…7ba1backed Yes	10c	203.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…5490backed Yes	9c	200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.25	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8859…43d4backed Yes	9c	117.43$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45a1…d54abacked Yes	10c	102.7$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event