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Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$165,068
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,468

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,068 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes0c27,106$121 inLost-$120.885325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfe…38e8backed Yes0c25,200$25 inLost-$25.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe995…e7d1backed Yes1c13,032$76 inLost-$7670%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…bee4backed Yes0c12,377$18 inLost-$18.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes1c10,000$80 inLost-$804816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost-$10.53876.5%25 W · 362 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeabf…bb11backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost-$10100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f3…f3a5backed Yes1c1,459$10 inLost-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes1c1,351$13 inLost-$12.65339.1%3 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked Yes1c1,000$12 inLost-$125018%9 W · 41 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-38.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…2b98backed Yes1c1,000$11 inLost-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7899…6da6backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca5…feaabacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac1…b48ebacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6227…15aebacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd58e…5c6bbacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f6…5acdbacked Yes4c1,000$35 inLost-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes2c897.76$20 inLost-$201154.3%5 W · 110 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-68.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes2c704.6$15 inLost-$14.6441017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes2c499.73$12 inLost-$11.9129610.5%31 W · 265 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c490.32$12 inLost-$11.822,57613.2%339 W · 2,237 L+4.4wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c452.56$10 inLost-$10.082,1813.9%85 W · 2,096 L+4.7wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes3c342.62$10 inLost-$10.085198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe97d…622bbacked Yes12c156.08$19 inLost-$19.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.